By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 20 to Oct 31), sportsbooks adjusted Leon Draisaitl's posted shots on goal line downward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 3.5 to 2.5 (-1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for EDM @ NYI is 3.3 (-178).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN @ EDM | 3.5 (+112) | — | 4 | Over | |
| CAR @ EDM | 2.5 (-140) | -1.0 | 4 | Over | |
| TOR @ EDM | 3.5 (+115) | +1.0 | 7 | Over | |
| DET @ EDM | 3.5 (+128) | 0.0 | 3 | Under | |
| CGY @ EDM | 3.5 (+116) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| EDM @ NYI | 2.5 (-152) | -1.0 | 2 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 3 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +0.2 vs. -1.0 book step adjustment (+1.2 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 · vs MIN | 3.5 | — | 4 | +0.5 |
| Oct 22 · vs CAR | 2.5 | -1.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Oct 24 · vs TOR | 3.5 | +1.0 | 7 | +3.5 |
| Oct 26 · vs DET | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Oct 28 · vs CGY | 3.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -1.5 |
| Oct 31 · @ NYI | 2.5 | -1.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
Draisaitl's shooting volume and concentrated attacking deployment support three shots even after regression toward his prior-season rate.
48 SOG · 13 GAMES — Draisaitl recorded 48 shots in 13 games, a 3.69-per-game rate and approximately 14.1% of Edmonton's shooting volume. The 3.30-shot expectation brings that start closer to last season's 2.86-per-game rate while retaining enough volume to reach three.
22.0 MIN · TOP LINE · PP1 — The projected line pairs Draisaitl with McDavid and Podkolzin, and he also plays on the first power-play unit. A 22.0-minute workload gives him access to both even-strength chances and special-teams shooting opportunities rather than relying on one isolated scoring sequence.
McDavid and Podkolzin can take the finishing chances while Draisaitl distributes the puck. A game with few penalties or a lopsided score can also remove the attacking minutes needed to sustain his shooting workload.
Settlement Rule: CASHES LEON DRAISAITL OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST 3 OFFICIAL SHOTS ON GOAL; NO PUSH AT THIS LINE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Edmonton Oilers's 5 primary contributors.
| Edmonton Oilers Contributor | Nov 1 @ NYR | Nov 3 @ NJ | Nov 5 vs ANA | Nov 7 vs VAN | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid EDM · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Evan Bouchard EDM · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Leon Draisaitl EDM · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins EDM · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | — | 2.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Vasily Podkolzin EDM · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 2 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Leon Draisaitl prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | EDM @ NYI | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-154) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 2 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 10 | EDM @ SJ | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (+110) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 3 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Draisaitl's shooting volume and concentrated attacking deployment support three shots even after regression toward his prior-season rate.
Counter-Case: McDavid and Podkolzin can take the finishing chances while Draisaitl distributes the puck. A game with few penalties or a lopsided score can also remove the attacking minutes needed to sustain his shooting workload.
Draisaitl's first-line workload and elevated early shot volume make four shots attainable against San Jose.
Counter-Case: Draisaitl can create goals as a passer, as he did with four assists against Anaheim, without reaching four shots himself. If McDavid takes the finishing chances on their shared shifts, Edmonton can score as projected while Draisaitl stays under.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |