By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 20 to Oct 31), Bo Horvat's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for EDM @ NYI is 3.3 (-171).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA @ NYI | 2.5 (-155) | — | 3 | Over | |
| LA @ NYI | 2.5 (-140) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| NYI @ DAL | 2.5 (-114) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| NYI @ NAS | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| NYI @ MIN | 2.5 (-135) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| EDM @ NYI | 2.5 (-120) | 0.0 | 3 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.5).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 · vs ANA | 2.5 | — | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 22 · vs LA | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 25 · @ DAL | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 27 · @ NAS | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 29 · @ MIN | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 31 · vs EDM | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
Horvat's established shooting rate and top-line, first-unit power-play workload support reaching three shots.
38 SOG · 12 COMPLETE GAMES — Through the Nashville game, Horvat had 38 shots in 12 complete games, representing 12.1% of New York's 315 team shots. Last season's 226 shots in 68 games provide a 3.32-per-game baseline, so reaching three does not require a new level of shooting activity.
21.5 MIN · TOP LINE · PP1 — Horvat is projected between Holmstrom and Palmieri and occupies the first power-play unit. At 21.5 projected minutes, regular offensive shifts and special-teams touches give him repeated opportunities to record shots without needing those chances to become goals.
Edmonton can keep Horvat's attempts outside and turn potential shots into blocks or misses. If New York builds a lead, his late shifts can become more defensive while his wingers receive the finishing opportunities.
Settlement Rule: CASHES BO HORVAT OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST 3 OFFICIAL SHOTS ON GOAL; NO PUSH AT THIS LINE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across New York Islanders's 5 primary contributors.
| New York Islanders Contributor | Oct 29 @ MIN | Oct 31 vs EDM | Nov 5 vs CAR | Nov 7 vs NJ | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Schaefer NYI · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Bo Horvat NYI · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Simon Holmstrom NYI · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Tony DeAngelo NYI · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Emil Heineman NYI · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
2 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 3 settled Bo Horvat prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | EDM @ NYI | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-138) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 3 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 25 | NYI @ DAL | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-106) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 13 | VAN @ NYI | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-165) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 3 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Horvat's established shooting rate and top-line, first-unit power-play workload support reaching three shots.
Counter-Case: Edmonton can keep Horvat's attempts outside and turn potential shots into blocks or misses. If New York builds a lead, his late shifts can become more defensive while his wingers receive the finishing opportunities.
Bo Horvat's repeated shot volume, first-line minutes and first power-play role provide a path to three shots without requiring a high-scoring game.
Counter-Case: Dallas can close the middle and force the first line to spend its possessions along the boards. Long defensive sequences and a controlled, low-event game can leave Horvat short of the final attempt despite normal playing time.
Horvat’s established shooting volume and first-line, first-power-play deployment support three shots in a favorable Vancouver matchup.
Counter-Case: Heineman or Palmieri can finish possessions before Horvat directs a shot on net. Early goals by his power-play teammates can end those opportunities, while an Islanders lead can reduce the offensive workload required from his line.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |