Leon Draisaitl (NHL) Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory & CLV Record
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Sportsbook Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 28 to Nov 7), Leon Draisaitl's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 3.5.
6-Game Posted Shots on Goal Ledger (Leon Draisaitl)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY @ EDM | 3.5 (+116) | — | 2 | Under | |
| EDM @ NYI | 2.5 (-152) | -1.0 | 2 | Under | |
| EDM @ NYR | 2.5 (-160) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| EDM @ NJ | 2.5 (-140) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| ANA @ EDM | 3.5 (+126) | +1.0 | 6 | Over | |
| VAN @ EDM | 3.5 (+116) | 0.0 | — | Upcoming |
Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Leon Draisaitl Shots on Goal Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (-0.1).
- Window Open Line
- 3.5
- Current Posted Line
- 3.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- 0.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 3.4
- Actual Output Delta
- -0.1
- Modeled Fair Value
- —
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 · vs CGY | 3.5 | — | 2 | -1.5 |
| Oct 31 · @ NYI | 2.5 | -1.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Nov 1 · @ NYR | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Nov 3 · @ NJ | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Nov 5 · vs ANA | 3.5 | +1.0 | 6 | +2.5 |
| Nov 7 · vs VAN | 3.5 | 0.0 | — | — |
Leon Draisaitl Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 2 Lost)
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 2 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Leon Draisaitl prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | EDM @ NYI | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-154) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 2 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 10 | EDM @ SJ | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (+110) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 3 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Leon Draisaitl Prop Write-Ups
Draisaitl's shooting volume and concentrated attacking deployment support three shots even after regression toward his prior-season rate.
Counter-Case: McDavid and Podkolzin can take the finishing chances while Draisaitl distributes the puck. A game with few penalties or a lopsided score can also remove the attacking minutes needed to sustain his shooting workload.
Draisaitl's first-line workload and elevated early shot volume make four shots attainable against San Jose.
Counter-Case: Draisaitl can create goals as a passer, as he did with four assists against Anaheim, without reaching four shots himself. If McDavid takes the finishing chances on their shared shifts, Edmonton can score as projected while Draisaitl stays under.
Leon Draisaitl WagerBird Prop Release & CLV Archive
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release | Close | Actual | CLV Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | EDM @ NYI | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 | 2.5 | 2 | Lost |
| Oct 10 | EDM @ SJ | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 | 3.5 | 3 | Lost |
NHL Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |