By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Leon Draisaitl's shots on goal line at 3.5 for EDM @ SJ (Oct 10). WagerBird's modeled fair line for EDM @ SJ is 3.9 (-121).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM @ SJ | 3.5 (+126) | — | 3 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 3 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (+1.0) tracks actual window production (+1.7).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29 · vs VAN | 2.5 | — | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 1 · @ VAN | 3.5 | +1.0 | 5 | +1.5 |
| Oct 3 · vs SEA | 3.5 | 0.0 | 6 | +2.5 |
| Oct 7 · @ ANA | 3.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -1.5 |
| Oct 10 · @ SJ | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
Draisaitl's first-line workload and elevated early shot volume make four shots attainable against San Jose.
16 SHOTS · FIRST 3 GAMES — Draisaitl put 16 shots on goal in Edmonton's first three games, compared with 186 in 65 games last season. The 3.90-shot projection pulls that fast start back toward his established rate while retaining a meaningful chance of four.
29.65 SHOTS ALLOWED/G · 2025–26 — Friday's practice kept Draisaitl with McDavid and Podkolzin. San Jose allowed 29.65 shots per game last season, so sustained top-line possession can furnish several Draisaitl attempts.
Draisaitl can create goals as a passer, as he did with four assists against Anaheim, without reaching four shots himself. If McDavid takes the finishing chances on their shared shifts, Edmonton can score as projected while Draisaitl stays under.
Settlement Rule: CASHES LEON DRAISAITL OVER 3.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST FOUR RECORDED SHOTS; NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Edmonton Oilers's 4 primary contributors.
| Edmonton Oilers Contributor | Nov 1 @ NYR | Nov 3 @ NJ | Nov 5 vs ANA | Nov 7 vs VAN | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid EDM · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Leon Draisaitl EDM · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Evan Bouchard EDM · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Vasily Podkolzin EDM · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 2 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Leon Draisaitl prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | EDM @ NYI | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-154) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 2 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 10 | EDM @ SJ | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (+110) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 3 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Draisaitl's shooting volume and concentrated attacking deployment support three shots even after regression toward his prior-season rate.
Counter-Case: McDavid and Podkolzin can take the finishing chances while Draisaitl distributes the puck. A game with few penalties or a lopsided score can also remove the attacking minutes needed to sustain his shooting workload.
Draisaitl's first-line workload and elevated early shot volume make four shots attainable against San Jose.
Counter-Case: Draisaitl can create goals as a passer, as he did with four assists against Anaheim, without reaching four shots himself. If McDavid takes the finishing chances on their shared shifts, Edmonton can score as projected while Draisaitl stays under.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |