By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 5 active games (Oct 13 to Oct 22), Kyle Connor's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 3.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for WPG @ DAL is 3.5 (-205).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN @ WPG | 3.5 (-106) | — | 3 | Under | |
| WPG @ CHI | 3.5 (+120) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| CAR @ WPG | 2.5 (+105) | -1.0 | 2 | Under | |
| WPG @ STL | 3.5 (+125) | +1.0 | 4 | Over | |
| WPG @ DAL | 3.5 (+105) | 0.0 | 3 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 1 licensed partner sportsbook. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (-0.2).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 · vs ANA | 3.5 | — | 3 | -0.5 |
| Oct 13 · vs MIN | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Oct 15 · @ CHI | 3.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +1.5 |
| Oct 17 · vs CAR | 2.5 | -1.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 20 · @ STL | 3.5 | +1.0 | 4 | +0.5 |
| Oct 22 · @ DAL | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
Connor's concentrated share of Winnipeg's shooting and primary offensive deployment support reaching the third shot even after accounting for Dallas's suppression.
41 SOG · 9 GP · 16.7% TEAM SHARE — Connor has generated 41 shots in nine games, accounting for 16.7% of Winnipeg's 246 team shots. That concentration gives him a route to the third shot without requiring a broad scoring surge from the rest of the lineup.
21 EXPECTED MIN · PP1 — An expected 21 minutes keeps Connor involved alongside Scheifele and Perfetti, while first-unit power-play deployment adds possessions against a reduced defensive group. Those roles create opportunities to shoot in different game situations rather than relying entirely on transition chances.
Dallas can keep Connor's entries outside and block his attempts before they reach the net. Few Winnipeg power plays would remove another source of shooting opportunities in an already restrained scoring environment.
Settlement Rule: CASHES KYLE CONNOR OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST 3 SHOTS ON GOAL. PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Winnipeg Jets's 5 primary contributors.
| Winnipeg Jets Contributor | Oct 30 @ FLA | Nov 1 @ CAR | Nov 3 @ MON | Nov 5 vs VAN | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor WPG · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Cole Perfetti WPG · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Mark Scheifele WPG · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Neal Pionk WPG · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Gabriel Vilardi WPG · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
2 Beat / 0 Tied / 3 Lost closing line value record across 5 settled Kyle Connor prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | WPG @ MON | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (+110) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 8 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Nov 1 | WPG @ CAR | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-118) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 27 | FLA @ WPG | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (+105) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 3 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 22 | WPG @ DAL | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-130) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 3 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 13 | MIN @ WPG | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (-115) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 3 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Connor's share of Winnipeg's shots on goal and first-unit power-play role give him multiple routes to 4 shots.
Counter-Case: Montreal can deny the wide entry and make Connor spend his shifts chasing possession instead of shooting. Winnipeg's limited scoring outlook can turn a trailing script into failed entries rather than sustained pressure.
Connor's established shooting volume and first-unit power-play access can sustain three shots despite reduced even-strength support.
Counter-Case: Carolina can keep Winnipeg defending for long stretches and deny clean entries to Connor's new line. Fewer return passes at even strength, combined with a low-event game, can leave him with two or fewer shots even if he gets power-play time.
Connor's concentrated first-group and power-play workload gives his established shot volume a route to four shots despite a restrictive opponent.
Counter-Case: Florida can deny offensive-zone time and keep Winnipeg's power play from producing sustained pressure. Connor can also create possessions that end with Scheifele or Perfetti shooting, leaving him short of four attempts on target.
Connor's concentrated share of Winnipeg's shooting and primary offensive deployment support reaching the third shot even after accounting for Dallas's suppression.
Counter-Case: Dallas can keep Connor's entries outside and block his attempts before they reach the net. Few Winnipeg power plays would remove another source of shooting opportunities in an already restrained scoring environment.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |