By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 15 to Oct 27), Kyle Connor's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 3.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for FLA @ WPG is 3.9 (-122).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG @ CHI | 3.5 (+120) | — | 5 | Over | |
| CAR @ WPG | 2.5 (+105) | -1.0 | 2 | Under | |
| WPG @ STL | 3.5 (+125) | +1.0 | 4 | Over | |
| WPG @ DAL | 3.5 (+105) | 0.0 | 3 | Under | |
| MON @ WPG | 3.5 (+134) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| FLA @ WPG | 3.5 (+115) | 0.0 | 3 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.2).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 · @ CHI | 3.5 | — | 5 | +1.5 |
| Oct 17 · vs CAR | 2.5 | -1.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 20 · @ STL | 3.5 | +1.0 | 4 | +0.5 |
| Oct 22 · @ DAL | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Oct 25 · vs MON | 3.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +1.5 |
| Oct 27 · vs FLA | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
Connor's concentrated first-group and power-play workload gives his established shot volume a route to four shots despite a restrictive opponent.
49 SOG · 11 GAMES · 274 PRIOR-SEASON SOG — Connor's current log contains 49 shots across 11 games, following 274 shots in 82 games last season. The combination supports a shooting workload that does not rely solely on his recent goal production.
FIRST FORWARD GROUP · PP1 · 21:30 EXPECTED TOI — Connor skates with Scheifele and Perfetti in Winnipeg's projected first forward group and also occupies the first power-play unit. Those assignments support the 21:30 ice-time expectation and keep him involved in the possessions most likely to produce attempts.
Florida can deny offensive-zone time and keep Winnipeg's power play from producing sustained pressure. Connor can also create possessions that end with Scheifele or Perfetti shooting, leaving him short of four attempts on target.
Settlement Rule: CASHES KYLE CONNOR FULL GAME SHOTS ON GOAL OVER 3.5 WITH 4 OR MORE SHOTS ON GOAL; NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Winnipeg Jets's 5 primary contributors.
| Winnipeg Jets Contributor | Oct 30 @ FLA | Nov 1 @ CAR | Nov 3 @ MON | Nov 5 vs VAN | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor WPG · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Cole Perfetti WPG · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Neal Pionk WPG · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Mark Scheifele WPG · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Gabriel Vilardi WPG · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
2 Beat / 0 Tied / 3 Lost closing line value record across 5 settled Kyle Connor prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | WPG @ MON | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (+110) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 8 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Nov 1 | WPG @ CAR | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-118) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 27 | FLA @ WPG | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (+105) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 3 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 22 | WPG @ DAL | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-130) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 3 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 13 | MIN @ WPG | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (-115) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 3 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Connor's share of Winnipeg's shots on goal and first-unit power-play role give him multiple routes to 4 shots.
Counter-Case: Montreal can deny the wide entry and make Connor spend his shifts chasing possession instead of shooting. Winnipeg's limited scoring outlook can turn a trailing script into failed entries rather than sustained pressure.
Connor's established shooting volume and first-unit power-play access can sustain three shots despite reduced even-strength support.
Counter-Case: Carolina can keep Winnipeg defending for long stretches and deny clean entries to Connor's new line. Fewer return passes at even strength, combined with a low-event game, can leave him with two or fewer shots even if he gets power-play time.
Connor's concentrated first-group and power-play workload gives his established shot volume a route to four shots despite a restrictive opponent.
Counter-Case: Florida can deny offensive-zone time and keep Winnipeg's power play from producing sustained pressure. Connor can also create possessions that end with Scheifele or Perfetti shooting, leaving him short of four attempts on target.
Connor's concentrated share of Winnipeg's shooting and primary offensive deployment support reaching the third shot even after accounting for Dallas's suppression.
Counter-Case: Dallas can keep Connor's entries outside and block his attempts before they reach the net. Few Winnipeg power plays would remove another source of shooting opportunities in an already restrained scoring environment.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |