By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Kyle Connor's shots on goal line at 3.5 for MIN @ WPG (Oct 13). WagerBird's modeled fair line for MIN @ WPG is 4.1 (-140).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN @ WPG | 3.5 (-106) | — | 3 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.7).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 · @ DET | 3.5 | — | 5 | +1.5 |
| Oct 5 · @ PIT | 3.5 | 0.0 | 6 | +2.5 |
| Oct 7 · vs COL | 3.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +0.5 |
| Oct 9 · vs ANA | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Oct 13 · vs MIN | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
Connor's increased share of Winnipeg's shooting and top-unit deployment support four shots without requiring a high-scoring game.
27 SHOTS · 5 GAMES · 20.8% SHARE — Connor has taken 27 of Winnipeg's 130 current shots, a larger share than his 12.7% last-season share. That concentration gives him more chances to reach the threshold even when teammates contribute little shooting volume.
21:22 AVG TOI · PP1 · MIN BACK-TO-BACK — Connor's projected Scheifele–Perfetti line and first power-play assignment sustain access to offensive-zone possessions. Minnesota plays the previous night while Winnipeg has been off since October 9, creating a favorable opportunity for repeated attacking shifts.
Minnesota can funnel Connor's attempts into blocks or misses rather than saves. Winnipeg protecting a lead can also reduce his late attacking shifts and leave him below four official shots.
Settlement Rule: CASHES KYLE CONNOR OVER 3.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST 4 OFFICIAL SHOTS ON GOAL; NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Winnipeg Jets's 3 primary contributors.
| Winnipeg Jets Contributor | Oct 30 @ FLA | Nov 1 @ CAR | Nov 3 @ MON | Nov 5 vs VAN | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor WPG · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Cole Perfetti WPG · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Mark Scheifele WPG · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
2 Beat / 0 Tied / 3 Lost closing line value record across 5 settled Kyle Connor prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | WPG @ MON | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (+110) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 8 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Nov 1 | WPG @ CAR | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-118) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 27 | FLA @ WPG | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (+105) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 3 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 22 | WPG @ DAL | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-130) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 3 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 13 | MIN @ WPG | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (-115) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 3 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Connor's share of Winnipeg's shots on goal and first-unit power-play role give him multiple routes to 4 shots.
Counter-Case: Montreal can deny the wide entry and make Connor spend his shifts chasing possession instead of shooting. Winnipeg's limited scoring outlook can turn a trailing script into failed entries rather than sustained pressure.
Connor's established shooting volume and first-unit power-play access can sustain three shots despite reduced even-strength support.
Counter-Case: Carolina can keep Winnipeg defending for long stretches and deny clean entries to Connor's new line. Fewer return passes at even strength, combined with a low-event game, can leave him with two or fewer shots even if he gets power-play time.
Connor's concentrated first-group and power-play workload gives his established shot volume a route to four shots despite a restrictive opponent.
Counter-Case: Florida can deny offensive-zone time and keep Winnipeg's power play from producing sustained pressure. Connor can also create possessions that end with Scheifele or Perfetti shooting, leaving him short of four attempts on target.
Connor's concentrated share of Winnipeg's shooting and primary offensive deployment support reaching the third shot even after accounting for Dallas's suppression.
Counter-Case: Dallas can keep Connor's entries outside and block his attempts before they reach the net. Few Winnipeg power plays would remove another source of shooting opportunities in an already restrained scoring environment.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |