By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 5 active games (Oct 10 to Oct 22), Wyatt Johnston's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for WPG @ DAL is 2.8 (-110).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL @ PIT | 2.5 (+100) | — | 1 | Under | |
| COL @ DAL | 2.5 (+108) | 0.0 | — | — | |
| DAL @ CHI(Missed 1g) | 2.5 (-125) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| BOS @ DAL | 2.5 (-105) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| WPG @ DAL | 2.5 (+115) | 0.0 | 4 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.5).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 · @ BUF | 2.5 | — | 1 | -1.5 |
| Oct 10 · @ PIT | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
| Oct 13 · vs COL | 2.5 | 0.0 | — | — |
| Oct 17 · @ CHI | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 20 · vs BOS | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Oct 22 · vs WPG | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
Johnston's regular shooting workload and first-unit power-play role provide enough opportunities to reach the third shot.
20 SOG · 7 GP — Johnston's current total combines 16 shots in his first six games with four against Boston. His previous-season 206 shots in 82 games support a recurring shooting role rather than a case built only around the latest performance.
20.5 EXPECTED MIN · PP1 — Johnston's projected combination places him between Steel and Rantanen, and he also works on Dallas's first power-play unit. An expected 20.5-minute workload gives him opportunities to finish both regular-line possessions and man-advantage sequences.
Rantanen can absorb the finishing chances from their shared possessions and leave Johnston making the final pass. An early Dallas lead can shift later possessions toward protecting territory, making the low-event route to the team-total Under a threat to the third shot.
Settlement Rule: CASHES WYATT JOHNSTON OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST 3 SHOTS ON GOAL. PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Dallas Stars's 5 primary contributors.
| Dallas Stars Contributor | Oct 31 vs CBJ | Nov 3 @ WAS | Nov 5 @ CBJ | Nov 7 vs SJ | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Robertson DAL · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Mikko Rantanen DAL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Wyatt Johnston DAL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Roope Hintz DAL · Shots on Goal | — | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Miro Heiskanen DAL · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | — | — | 0.0 | Flat → |
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Wyatt Johnston prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | WPG @ DAL | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+116) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 4 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Johnston's regular shooting workload and first-unit power-play role provide enough opportunities to reach the third shot.
Counter-Case: Rantanen can absorb the finishing chances from their shared possessions and leave Johnston making the final pass. An early Dallas lead can shift later possessions toward protecting territory, making the low-event route to the team-total Under a threat to the third shot.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |