Kyle Connor (NHL) Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory & CLV Record
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Sportsbook Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 27 to Nov 5), Kyle Connor's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 3.5.
6-Game Posted Shots on Goal Ledger (Kyle Connor)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA @ WPG | 3.5 (+115) | — | 3 | Under | |
| WPG @ TB | 3.5 (+132) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| WPG @ FLA | 2.5 (-165) | -1.0 | 2 | Under | |
| WPG @ CAR | 2.5 (-118) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| WPG @ MON | 3.5 (+122) | +1.0 | 8 | Over | |
| VAN @ WPG | 3.5 (-105) | 0.0 | 2 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Kyle Connor Shots on Goal Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (0.0).
- Window Open Line
- 3.5
- Current Posted Line
- 3.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- 0.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 3.5
- Actual Output Delta
- 0.0
- Modeled Fair Value
- —
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 · vs FLA | 3.5 | — | 3 | -0.5 |
| Oct 29 · @ TB | 3.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +0.5 |
| Oct 30 · @ FLA | 2.5 | -1.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Nov 1 · @ CAR | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Nov 3 · @ MON | 3.5 | +1.0 | 8 | +4.5 |
| Nov 5 · vs VAN | 3.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -1.5 |
Kyle Connor Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (2 Beat, 0 Tied, 3 Lost)
2 Beat / 0 Tied / 3 Lost closing line value record across 5 settled Kyle Connor prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | WPG @ MON | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (+110) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 8 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Nov 1 | WPG @ CAR | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-118) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 27 | FLA @ WPG | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (+105) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 3 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 22 | WPG @ DAL | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-130) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 3 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 13 | MIN @ WPG | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (-115) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 3 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Kyle Connor Prop Write-Ups
Connor's share of Winnipeg's shots on goal and first-unit power-play role give him multiple routes to 4 shots.
Counter-Case: Montreal can deny the wide entry and make Connor spend his shifts chasing possession instead of shooting. Winnipeg's limited scoring outlook can turn a trailing script into failed entries rather than sustained pressure.
Connor's established shooting volume and first-unit power-play access can sustain three shots despite reduced even-strength support.
Counter-Case: Carolina can keep Winnipeg defending for long stretches and deny clean entries to Connor's new line. Fewer return passes at even strength, combined with a low-event game, can leave him with two or fewer shots even if he gets power-play time.
Connor's concentrated first-group and power-play workload gives his established shot volume a route to four shots despite a restrictive opponent.
Counter-Case: Florida can deny offensive-zone time and keep Winnipeg's power play from producing sustained pressure. Connor can also create possessions that end with Scheifele or Perfetti shooting, leaving him short of four attempts on target.
Connor's concentrated share of Winnipeg's shooting and primary offensive deployment support reaching the third shot even after accounting for Dallas's suppression.
Counter-Case: Dallas can keep Connor's entries outside and block his attempts before they reach the net. Few Winnipeg power plays would remove another source of shooting opportunities in an already restrained scoring environment.
Kyle Connor WagerBird Prop Release & CLV Archive
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release | Close | Actual | CLV Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | WPG @ MON | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 | 3.5 | 8 | Lost |
| Nov 1 | WPG @ CAR | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 | 2.5 | 2 | Beat |
| Oct 27 | FLA @ WPG | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 | 3.5 | 3 | Lost |
| Oct 22 | WPG @ DAL | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 | 3.5 | 3 | Beat |
| Oct 13 | MIN @ WPG | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 | 3.5 | 3 | Lost |
NHL Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |