By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 25 to Nov 5), Jason Robertson's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for DAL @ CBJ is 3.3 (-171).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI @ DAL | 2.5 (-156) | — | 3 | Over | |
| NJ @ DAL | 2.5 (-156) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| MON @ DAL | 3.5 (+135) | +1.0 | 4 | Over | |
| CBJ @ DAL | 3.5 (+115) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| DAL @ WAS | 2.5 (-155) | -1.0 | 5 | Over | |
| DAL @ CBJ | 2.5 (-145) | 0.0 | 3 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.7).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 · vs NYI | 2.5 | — | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 27 · vs NJ | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 29 · vs MON | 3.5 | +1.0 | 4 | +0.5 |
| Oct 31 · vs CBJ | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Nov 3 · @ WAS | 2.5 | -1.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
| Nov 5 · @ CBJ | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
Robertson's sustained shooting volume and first-unit power-play role support three shots without needing a high-scoring game.
44 SOG · 14 GAMES · 19:52 TOI — Robertson's available 14-game snapshot reports 44 shots and 19:52 average ice time.[233.43–57] That workload gives him a route to three shots without needing any of his chances to become goals.
PP1 · 28.1 OPPONENT SA/GP — Robertson shares an even-strength line with Roope Hintz and Arttu Hyry and also has a first-unit power-play assignment.[237.39][164.81–91] Those assignments create separate routes to releases against a defense that allowed 28.1 shots per game in the October 29 snapshot.
Dallas can build an early lead and spend the final period protecting it instead of generating attacks. If the other forwards take the power-play shooting opportunities while Robertson's attempts are blocked, he can finish with only one or two shots on target.
Settlement Rule: CASHES JASON ROBERTSON OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST 3 OFFICIAL SOG · NO PUSH AT 2.5.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Dallas Stars's 5 primary contributors.
| Dallas Stars Contributor | Oct 31 vs CBJ | Nov 3 @ WAS | Nov 5 @ CBJ | Nov 7 vs SJ | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyatt Johnston DAL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jason Robertson DAL · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Mikko Rantanen DAL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Roope Hintz DAL · Shots on Goal | — | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Thomas Harley DAL · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Jason Robertson prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | DAL @ CBJ | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-156) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 3 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 13 | COL @ DAL | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-148) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Robertson's sustained shooting volume and first-unit power-play role support three shots without needing a high-scoring game.
Counter-Case: Dallas can build an early lead and spend the final period protecting it instead of generating attacks. If the other forwards take the power-play shooting opportunities while Robertson's attempts are blocked, he can finish with only one or two shots on target.
Robertson’s established shooting volume and first-unit power-play access give him multiple routes to three shots.
Counter-Case: Colorado can keep Robertson outside the middle and turn his attempts into blocks or misses. A Dallas attack spending long stretches defending can leave him below three shots even while he receives his usual offensive assignments.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |