Jason Robertson (NHL) Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory & CLV Record
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Sportsbook Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 27 to Nov 7), sportsbooks adjusted Jason Robertson's posted shots on goal line upward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 2.5 to 3.5 (+1.0).
6-Game Posted Shots on Goal Ledger (Jason Robertson)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ @ DAL | 2.5 (-156) | — | 3 | Over | |
| MON @ DAL | 3.5 (+135) | +1.0 | 4 | Over | |
| CBJ @ DAL | 3.5 (+115) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| DAL @ WAS | 2.5 (-155) | -1.0 | 5 | Over | |
| DAL @ CBJ | 2.5 (-145) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| SJ @ DAL | 3.5 (+112) | +1.0 | — | Upcoming |
Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Jason Robertson Shots on Goal Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Book step adjustment (+1.0) tracks actual window production (+0.7).
- Window Open Line
- 2.5
- Current Posted Line
- 3.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- +1.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 3.2
- Actual Output Delta
- +0.7
- Modeled Fair Value
- —
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 · vs NJ | 2.5 | — | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 29 · vs MON | 3.5 | +1.0 | 4 | +0.5 |
| Oct 31 · vs CBJ | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Nov 3 · @ WAS | 2.5 | -1.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
| Nov 5 · @ CBJ | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Nov 7 · vs SJ | 3.5 | +1.0 | — | — |
Jason Robertson Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (1 Beat, 1 Tied, 0 Lost)
1 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Jason Robertson prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | DAL @ CBJ | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-156) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 3 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 13 | COL @ DAL | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-148) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Jason Robertson Prop Write-Ups
Robertson's sustained shooting volume and first-unit power-play role support three shots without needing a high-scoring game.
Counter-Case: Dallas can build an early lead and spend the final period protecting it instead of generating attacks. If the other forwards take the power-play shooting opportunities while Robertson's attempts are blocked, he can finish with only one or two shots on target.
Robertson’s established shooting volume and first-unit power-play access give him multiple routes to three shots.
Counter-Case: Colorado can keep Robertson outside the middle and turn his attempts into blocks or misses. A Dallas attack spending long stretches defending can leave him below three shots even while he receives his usual offensive assignments.
Jason Robertson WagerBird Prop Release & CLV Archive
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release | Close | Actual | CLV Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | DAL @ CBJ | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 | 2.5 | 3 | Tied |
| Oct 13 | COL @ DAL | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 | 2.5 | 2 | Beat |
NHL Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |