By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 13 to Oct 25), sportsbooks adjusted Bo Horvat's posted shots on goal line downward in 1 of 5 game-over-game steps from 3.5 to 2.5 (-1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for NYI @ DAL is 3 (-139).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN @ NYI | 3.5 (+130) | — | 3 | Under | |
| NYI @ OTT | 2.5 (-115) | -1.0 | 4 | Over | |
| NYI @ TOR | 2.5 (-155) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| ANA @ NYI | 2.5 (-155) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| LA @ NYI | 2.5 (-140) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| NYI @ DAL | 2.5 (-114) | 0.0 | 2 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 2 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (-1.0) tracks actual window production (-0.3).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13 · vs VAN | 3.5 | — | 3 | -0.5 |
| Oct 15 · @ OTT | 2.5 | -1.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Oct 17 · @ TOR | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 20 · vs ANA | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 22 · vs LA | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 25 · @ DAL | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
Bo Horvat's repeated shot volume, first-line minutes and first power-play role provide a path to three shots without requiring a high-scoring game.
34 SOG · 10 GAMES · 8 AT 3+ — Horvat has reached three shots in eight of his first ten games. His volume has been distributed across repeated shooting nights rather than concentrated in one unusually busy performance.
20:45 TOI · LINE 1 · PP1 — Horvat centers Simon Holmstrom and Kyle Palmieri and also occupies the first power-play unit. That deployment gives him even-strength and special-teams routes to attempts, even when finishing is limited.
Dallas can close the middle and force the first line to spend its possessions along the boards. Long defensive sequences and a controlled, low-event game can leave Horvat short of the final attempt despite normal playing time.
Settlement Rule: CASHES BO HORVAT OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH THREE OR MORE RECORDED FULL GAME SHOTS ON GOAL; NO PUSH AT 2.5.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across New York Islanders's 3 primary contributors.
| New York Islanders Contributor | Oct 29 @ MIN | Oct 31 vs EDM | Nov 5 vs CAR | Nov 7 vs NJ | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Horvat NYI · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Matthew Schaefer NYI · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Simon Holmstrom NYI · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
2 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 3 settled Bo Horvat prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | EDM @ NYI | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-138) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 3 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 25 | NYI @ DAL | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-106) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 13 | VAN @ NYI | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-165) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 3 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Horvat's established shooting rate and top-line, first-unit power-play workload support reaching three shots.
Counter-Case: Edmonton can keep Horvat's attempts outside and turn potential shots into blocks or misses. If New York builds a lead, his late shifts can become more defensive while his wingers receive the finishing opportunities.
Bo Horvat's repeated shot volume, first-line minutes and first power-play role provide a path to three shots without requiring a high-scoring game.
Counter-Case: Dallas can close the middle and force the first line to spend its possessions along the boards. Long defensive sequences and a controlled, low-event game can leave Horvat short of the final attempt despite normal playing time.
Horvat’s established shooting volume and first-line, first-power-play deployment support three shots in a favorable Vancouver matchup.
Counter-Case: Heineman or Palmieri can finish possessions before Horvat directs a shot on net. Early goals by his power-play teammates can end those opportunities, while an Islanders lead can reduce the offensive workload required from his line.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |