By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted rebounds total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 24 to Nov 4), VJ Edgecombe's posted rebounds line has held net flat at 5.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for PHI @ DET is 6.6 (-203).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL @ PHI | 5.5 (-137) | — | 13 | Over | |
| PHI @ IND(Missed 1g) | 5.5 (-105) | 0.0 | 7 | Over | |
| NYK @ PHI | 5.5 (-105) | 0.0 | 8 | Over | |
| PHI @ CHA | 6.5 (+120) | +1.0 | 8 | Over | |
| CHI @ PHI | 6.5 (+118) | 0.0 | 3 | Under | |
| PHI @ DET | 5.5 (+100) | -1.0 | 6 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +2.0 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+2.0 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 · vs MIL | 5.5 | — | 13 | +7.5 |
| Oct 28 · @ IND | 5.5 | 0.0 | 7 | +1.5 |
| Oct 30 · vs NYK | 5.5 | 0.0 | 8 | +2.5 |
| Oct 31 · @ CHA | 6.5 | +1.0 | 8 | +1.5 |
| Nov 2 · vs CHI | 6.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -3.5 |
| Nov 4 · @ DET | 5.5 | -1.0 | 6 | +0.5 |
Edgecombe's sustained starter minutes preserve enough rebounding opportunity even after a conservative reduction from his earlier production rate.
33.3 MIN BASELINE · 33 MIN LAST GAME — Edgecombe's earlier snapshot showed 33.3 minutes per appearance, and he played 33 minutes against Chicago with the full starting group available. Continued floor time gives him chances to recover misses without needing a larger offensive role. [Earlier minutes](https://craftednba.com/teams/philadelphia) · [Latest rotation](https://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore/_/gameId/401909912)
7.8 REB BASELINE · 6.6 FORECAST — Edgecombe averaged 7.8 rebounds across his six appearances before Chicago. A forecast of 6.6 allows for a meaningful decline from that production while still leaving a path through ordinary starter minutes rather than a career-level rebounding night. [Rebounding baseline](https://craftednba.com/teams/philadelphia)
Embiid, Brown and James can collect the defensive misses before Edgecombe reaches them. A slow game with efficient shooting can leave too few rebound opportunities, and his recent three-rebound outing shows that starter minutes do not guarantee the required total.
Settlement Rule: CASHES WITH VJ EDGECOMBE COLLECTING SIX REBOUNDS OR MORE; NO STATISTICAL PUSH AT 5.5.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Philadelphia 76ers's 5 primary contributors.
| Philadelphia 76ers Contributor | Oct 31 @ CHA | Nov 2 vs CHI | Nov 4 @ DET | Nov 6 @ CLE | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey PHI · Points | 27.5 | 25.5 | 24.5 | 25.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Jaylen Brown PHI · Points | 23.5 | 21.5 | 19.5 | 20.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Joel Embiid PHI · Points | — | 21.5 | 18.5 | 21.5 | -3.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| LeBron James PHI · Points | 19.5 | 17.5 | 15.5 | 16.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| VJ Edgecombe PHI · Points | 16.5 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
2 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled VJ Edgecombe prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | PHI @ CLE | Rebounds | Over 5.5 (-105) · Fanatics | 5.5 | 3 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Nov 4 | PHI @ DET | Rebounds | Over 5.5 (+106) · DraftKings | 5.5 | 6 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Edgecombe's established starting workload gives his perimeter rebounding enough opportunities to reach the required count.
Counter-Case: Foul trouble can interrupt his rotation before he accumulates enough chances. Stronger box-outs from the opposing frontcourt or rebounds falling to his own big men can leave him short despite a full shift.
Edgecombe's sustained starter minutes preserve enough rebounding opportunity even after a conservative reduction from his earlier production rate.
Counter-Case: Embiid, Brown and James can collect the defensive misses before Edgecombe reaches them. A slow game with efficient shooting can leave too few rebound opportunities, and his recent three-rebound outing shows that starter minutes do not guarantee the required total.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |