By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted 3-pointers made total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 20 to Oct 30), Landry Shamet's posted 3-pointers made line has held net flat at 1.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for NYK @ PHI is 2.2 (-182).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ NYK | 1.5 (-115) | — | 1 | Under | |
| NYK @ BOS | 1.5 (-110) | 0.0 | 2 | Over | |
| ORL @ NYK | 1.5 (-102) | 0.0 | 2 | Over | |
| DET @ NYK | 1.5 (+116) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| NYK @ CHI | 1.5 (+104) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| NYK @ PHI | 1.5 (-125) | 0.0 | 0 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.5).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 · vs PHI | 1.5 | — | 1 | -0.5 |
| Oct 23 · @ BOS | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2 | +0.5 |
| Oct 25 · vs ORL | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2 | +0.5 |
| Oct 27 · vs DET | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +1.5 |
| Oct 28 · @ CHI | 1.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +2.5 |
| Oct 30 · @ PHI | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.5 |
Shamet's perimeter-heavy shooting role and expanded rotation opportunity support multiple made threes.
32:21 LAST GAME · 27 MIN PROJECTION — Shamet played 32:21 in Chicago while New York stayed with successful reserve combinations after reducing Bridges' second-half role. A 27-minute shift leaves a meaningful shooting window without requiring the entire expanded workload to repeat.
5.2 3PA · 39.2% LAST SEASON — Shamet averaged 5.2 three-point attempts in 23.0 minutes and made 39.2% last season. His shooting opportunity is concentrated beyond the arc, so extra floor time can translate directly into the attempts this market needs.
Bridges can reclaim longer shifts and squeeze Shamet's opportunity before shooting accuracy matters. Philadelphia can chase him off the arc and force drives instead of catch-and-shoot attempts. A slow opening stretch would also leave the reserve unit fewer chances to establish its spacing.
Settlement Rule: CASHES LANDRY SHAMET OVER 1.5 MADE THREES WITH TWO OR MORE; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across New York Knicks's 5 primary contributors.
| New York Knicks Contributor | Oct 30 @ PHI | Nov 2 vs BKN | Nov 4 vs CHI | Nov 7 @ CLE | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson NYK · Points | 26.5 | 23.5 | 25.5 | 26.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Karl-Anthony Towns NYK · Points | 19.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 19.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| OG Anunoby NYK · Points | 16.5 | 16.5 | 17.5 | 16.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Josh Hart NYK · Points | 10.5 | 10.5 | 9.5 | — | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Mikal Bridges NYK · Points | 9.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 9.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
1 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Landry Shamet prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | NYK @ PHI | 3-Pointers Made | Over 1.5 (-107) · DraftKings | 1.5 | 0 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 23 | NYK @ BOS | Points | Over 6.5 (-125) · Caesars | 6.5 | 8 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
Shamet's perimeter-heavy shooting role and expanded rotation opportunity support multiple made threes.
Counter-Case: Bridges can reclaim longer shifts and squeeze Shamet's opportunity before shooting accuracy matters. Philadelphia can chase him off the arc and force drives instead of catch-and-shoot attempts. A slow opening stretch would also leave the reserve unit fewer chances to establish its spacing.
Shamet's regular bench workload and perimeter attempt volume support reaching seven points without an expanded role.
Counter-Case: A shorter bench shift can make Shamet dependent on only a few jumpers. Two made threes alone leave him short, so he still needs another scoring contribution. A slow possession game can remove the extra attempt that supplies it.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |