By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 2 active games (Oct 20 to Oct 22), sportsbooks adjusted Anfernee Simons's posted points line upward in 1 of 1 game-over-game steps from 7.5 to 9.5 (+2.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for CLE @ PHI is 11.0 (-287).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ NYK | 7.5 (-115) | — | 13 | Over | |
| CLE @ PHI | 9.5 (-111) | +2.0 | 2 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Books adjusted +2.0 vs. 0.0 actual output delta (-2.0 Book Over-Adjustment).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 · @ NYK | 7.5 | — | 13 | +5.5 |
| Oct 22 · vs CLE | 9.5 | +2.0 | 2 | -7.5 |
Simons can produce sufficient reserve scoring through perimeter opportunities created alongside the starting playmakers.
13 PTS · 25 MIN · 10 FGA — Simons scored 13 points on 10 field-goal attempts in 25 minutes in the opener. The projected workload is smaller, so the scoring case does not require him to repeat all of those opportunities.
42.7% CATCH-AND-SHOOT · 6 SEASONS — Simons shot 42.7% on catch-and-shoot threes over the previous six seasons. Staggered minutes alongside Maxey or Brown give that shooting skill a route to attempts without requiring a primary ballhandling role.
A shortened reserve rotation can leave Simons on the bench during the closing stretch. Cold perimeter shooting can also keep him short even when he receives his expected minutes.
Settlement Rule: CASHES ANFERNEE SIMONS OVER 8.5 POINTS WITH AT LEAST NINE POINTS; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Philadelphia 76ers's 5 primary contributors.
| Philadelphia 76ers Contributor | Oct 31 @ CHA | Nov 2 vs CHI | Nov 4 @ DET | Nov 6 @ CLE | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey PHI · Points | 27.5 | 25.5 | 24.5 | 25.5 | +3.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Joel Embiid PHI · Points | — | 21.5 | 18.5 | 21.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jaylen Brown PHI · Points | 23.5 | 21.5 | 19.5 | 20.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| LeBron James PHI · Points | 19.5 | 17.5 | 15.5 | 16.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| VJ Edgecombe PHI · Points | 16.5 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Anfernee Simons prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | CLE @ PHI | Points | Over 8.5 (-125) · Caesars | 9.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Simons can produce sufficient reserve scoring through perimeter opportunities created alongside the starting playmakers.
Counter-Case: A shortened reserve rotation can leave Simons on the bench during the closing stretch. Cold perimeter shooting can also keep him short even when he receives his expected minutes.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |