By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted rebounds total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 25 to Nov 8), Rui Hachimura's posted rebounds line has held net flat at 5.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for NOP @ LAC is 6.2 (-157).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC @ OKC | 5.5 (+120) | — | 4 | Under | |
| LAC @ MIN | 4.5 (-146) | -1.0 | 5 | Over | |
| LAC @ GSW | 4.5 (-150) | 0.0 | 7 | Over | |
| TOR @ LAC | 5.5 (+124) | +1.0 | — | — | |
| MIA @ LAC | 5.5 (+115) | 0.0 | 9 | Over | |
| NOP @ LAC | 5.5 (+107) | 0.0 | — | Fair 6.2 |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 6 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.8).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 · @ OKC | 5.5 | — | 4 | -1.5 |
| Oct 30 · @ MIN | 4.5 | -1.0 | 5 | +0.5 |
| Nov 1 · @ GSW | 4.5 | 0.0 | 7 | +2.5 |
| Nov 2 · vs TOR | 5.5 | +1.0 | — | — |
| Nov 4 · vs MIA | 5.5 | 0.0 | 9 | +3.5 |
| Nov 8 · vs NOP | 5.5 | 0.0 | — | — |
Hachimura’s rebounding rate and a continued need for frontcourt size support six or more boards.
6.5 REB · 31.2 MIN — Hachimura averages 6.5 rebounds in 31.2 minutes across six starts. That established contribution gives him a route to the required total without needing an exceptional rebounding night.
9 REB · 37 MIN · JACKSON OUT — Hachimura returned from his quadriceps-contusion absence with nine rebounds in 37 minutes. Jackson is unavailable, leaving fewer alternatives when Los Angeles wants size on the floor.
Hachimura can spend more possessions guarding away from the paint. Jones and Lopez can win the same rebounds, and early fouls can reduce his time with the larger lineup.
Settlement Rule: CASHES RUI HACHIMURA OVER 5.5 REBOUNDS WITH 6 OR MORE REBOUNDS; NO PUSH ON THE HALF.
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Los Angeles Clippers's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
-21.0 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 92.5 vs. 113.5 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83.0 | 89.7% | 92.5 | 113.5 (+108) | -21.0 |
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Darius Garland LAC · Prev 21.5 (0.0) | 21.5 | 21.2% | 18.9%(-2.3% vs Hist) | -3.0 | Steady Share | |
#2 Rui Hachimura LAC · Prev 14.5 (+2.0) | 16.5 | 16.8% | 14.5%(-2.3% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#3 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC · Prev 10.5 (+1.0) | 11.5 | 14.0% | 10.1%(-3.9% vs Hist) | +2.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#4 Brook Lopez LAC · Prev 10.5 (+1.0) | 11.5 | 13.2% | 10.1%(-3.1% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#5 Keaton Wagler LAC · Prev 11.5 (0.0) | 11.5 | 13.0% | 10.1%(-2.9% vs Hist) | -2.0 | Steady Share | |
#6 Max Strus LAC · Prev 9.5 (+1.0) | 10.5 | 11.5% | 9.3%(-2.2% vs Hist) | +2.0 | Team Tide Shift |
1 active Rui Hachimura prop write-up tracked awaiting closing line settlement.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | NOP @ LAC | Rebounds | Over 5.5 (+115) · ProphetX | 5.5 | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 7 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 9 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |