By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 29 to Nov 8), sportsbooks adjusted Trey Murphy III's posted assists line downward in 1 of 5 game-over-game steps from 3.5 to 2.5 (-1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for NOP @ LAC is 3.8 (-272).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC @ NOP | 3.5 (+108) | — | 3 | Under | |
| ATL @ NOP | 3.5 (+132) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| NOP @ MEM | 3.5 (+142) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| UTA @ NOP | 3.5 (+126) | 0.0 | — | — | |
| MIN @ NOP | 2.5 (-154) | -1.0 | 5 | Over | |
| NOP @ LAC | 2.5 (-134) | 0.0 | — | Fair 3.8 |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 6 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.0 vs. -1.0 book step adjustment (+2.0 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 · vs SAC | 3.5 | — | 3 | -0.5 |
| Oct 31 · vs ATL | 3.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +1.5 |
| Nov 2 · @ MEM | 3.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +1.5 |
| Nov 4 · vs UTA | 3.5 | 0.0 | — | — |
| Nov 6 · vs MIN | 2.5 | -1.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
| Nov 8 · @ LAC | 2.5 | 0.0 | — | — |
Murphy’s regular workload and recent secondary creation give him a direct route to three assists.
3.6 AST · 33.1 MIN — Murphy averages 3.6 assists in 33.1 minutes through eight starts. That combination gives him time to contribute as a connector instead of relying exclusively on a few isolated passing chances.
5 · 5 · 5 · 3 AST — Murphy’s latest four appearances all reached the required assist count. His latest return included five assists in 33:53, showing that he resumed both substantial minutes and a passing contribution.
Murphy can attack a favorable matchup as a scorer rather than moving the ball. If the Clippers stay attached to shooters or teammates miss, his passing opportunities may not become assists.
Settlement Rule: CASHES TREY MURPHY III OVER 2.5 ASSISTS WITH 3 OR MORE ASSISTS; NO PUSH ON THE HALF.
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across New Orleans Pelicans's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
-5.1 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 109.4 vs. 114.5 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86.0 | 78.6% | 109.4 | 114.5 (+104) | -5.1 |
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Zion Williamson NOP · Prev 19.5 (0.0) | 19.5 | 16.2% | 17.0%(+0.8% vs Hist) | -2.0 | Steady Share | |
#2 Dejounte Murray NOP · Prev 16.5 (0.0) | 16.5 | 12.9% | 14.4%(+1.5% vs Hist) | -1.0 | Steady Share | |
#3 Trey Murphy III NOP · Prev 15.5 (0.0) | 15.5 | 12.4% | 13.5%(+1.1% vs Hist) | -4.0 | Steady Share | |
#4 Jeremiah Fears NOP · Prev 13.5 (+1.0) | 14.5 | 14.2% | 12.7%(-1.5% vs Hist) | -1.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#5 Saddiq Bey NOP · Prev 12.5 (0.0) | 12.5 | 13.3% | 10.9%(-2.4% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share | |
#6 Karlo Matkovic NOP · Prev 6.5 (+1.0) | 7.5 | 9.6% | 6.6%(-3.0% vs Hist) | -1.0 | Team Tide Shift |
1 active Trey Murphy III prop write-up tracked awaiting closing line settlement.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | NOP @ LAC | Assists | Over 2.5 (-150) · Fanatics | 2.5 | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 7 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 9 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |