By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 28 to Nov 8), sportsbooks adjusted Brook Lopez's posted points line upward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 10.5 to 11.5 (+1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for NOP @ LAC is 15.5 (-334).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAL @ LAC | 10.5 (-115) | — | 2 | Under | |
| LAC @ MIN | 10.5 (+101) | 0.0 | 13 | Over | |
| LAC @ GSW | 9.5 (-113) | -1.0 | 7 | Under | |
| TOR @ LAC | 10.5 (-105) | +1.0 | 12 | Over | |
| MIA @ LAC | 10.5 (-102) | 0.0 | 20 | Over | |
| NOP @ LAC | 11.5 (-130) | +1.0 | — | Fair 15.5 |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 6 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (+1.0) tracks actual window production (+0.3).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 · vs LAL | 10.5 | — | 2 | -8.5 |
| Oct 30 · @ MIN | 10.5 | 0.0 | 13 | +2.5 |
| Nov 1 · @ GSW | 9.5 | -1.0 | 7 | -2.5 |
| Nov 2 · vs TOR | 10.5 | +1.0 | 12 | +1.5 |
| Nov 4 · vs MIA | 10.5 | 0.0 | 20 | +9.5 |
| Nov 8 · vs NOP | 11.5 | +1.0 | — | — |
Lopez’s established scoring rate and a larger available center assignment support a path to at least twelve points.
13.5 PTS · 23.5 MIN — Lopez already averages 13.5 points in 23.5 minutes. His 9.4 field-goal attempts and 3.3 three-point attempts per game provide scoring routes both near the basket and from the perimeter.
JACKSON OUT · 29 MIN ESTIMATE — Jackson is unavailable, leaving fewer center options for Los Angeles. A 29-minute assignment would give Lopez more time to accumulate attempts without requiring a repeat of his latest 35-minute overtime workload.
Williamson can draw Lopez into early foul trouble, while smaller lineups can remove him from the closing group. Cold perimeter shooting can also leave him short even with additional minutes.
Settlement Rule: CASHES BROOK LOPEZ OVER 11.5 POINTS WITH 12 OR MORE POINTS; NO PUSH ON THE HALF.
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Los Angeles Clippers's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
-21.0 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 92.5 vs. 113.5 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83.0 | 89.7% | 92.5 | 113.5 (+108) | -21.0 |
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Darius Garland LAC · Prev 21.5 (0.0) | 21.5 | 21.2% | 18.9%(-2.3% vs Hist) | -3.0 | Steady Share | |
#2 Rui Hachimura LAC · Prev 14.5 (+2.0) | 16.5 | 16.8% | 14.5%(-2.3% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#3 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC · Prev 10.5 (+1.0) | 11.5 | 14.0% | 10.1%(-3.9% vs Hist) | +2.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#4 Brook Lopez LAC · Prev 10.5 (+1.0) | 11.5 | 13.2% | 10.1%(-3.1% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#5 Keaton Wagler LAC · Prev 11.5 (0.0) | 11.5 | 13.0% | 10.1%(-2.9% vs Hist) | -2.0 | Steady Share | |
#6 Max Strus LAC · Prev 9.5 (+1.0) | 10.5 | 11.5% | 9.3%(-2.2% vs Hist) | +2.0 | Team Tide Shift |
1 active Brook Lopez prop write-up tracked awaiting closing line settlement.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | NOP @ LAC | Points | Over 11.5 (-120) · FanDuel | 11.5 | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 7 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 9 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |