By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted rebounds total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 24 to Nov 4), Keldon Johnson's posted rebounds line has held net flat at 4.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for DAL @ SAS is 5.4 (-369).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAS @ DAL | 4.5 (+119) | — | 6 | Over | |
| SAC @ SAS | 4.5 (-115) | 0.0 | 4 | Under | |
| SAS @ UTA | 4.5 (+110) | 0.0 | 6 | Over | |
| MIN @ SAS | 4.5 (+112) | 0.0 | 6 | Over | |
| UTA @ SAS | 4.5 (+112) | 0.0 | 7 | Over | |
| DAL @ SAS | 4.5 (+124) | 0.0 | 5 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.2 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.2 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 · @ DAL | 4.5 | — | 6 | +1.5 |
| Oct 27 · vs SAC | 4.5 | 0.0 | 4 | -0.5 |
| Oct 28 · @ UTA | 4.5 | 0.0 | 6 | +1.5 |
| Oct 31 · vs MIN | 4.5 | 0.0 | 6 | +1.5 |
| Nov 2 · vs UTA | 4.5 | 0.0 | 7 | +2.5 |
| Nov 4 · vs DAL | 4.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +0.5 |
Johnson's established rebounding production in reserve minutes supports the modest four-board requirement.
4, 6, 6, 7 REB · LAST 4 GAMES — Johnson collected four, six, six and seven rebounds in his last four appearances. That sequence includes both quiet and productive scoring nights, so his route to the boards has not required a hot offensive performance.
5.6 RPG NOW · 5.4 RPG LAST SEASON — Johnson averages 5.6 rebounds this season after producing 5.4 in 23.3 minutes last season. A normal reserve stint can therefore supply enough rebounding opportunities without an unusually long closing assignment.
Accurate Dallas shooting can leave Johnson with too few defensive misses to pursue. Bigger lineups or early fouls can also remove the reserve minutes that supply his rebounding opportunities.
Settlement Rule: CASHES KELDON JOHNSON FULL GAME REBOUNDS OVER 3.5 WITH AT LEAST 4 REBOUNDS; NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across San Antonio Spurs's 5 primary contributors.
| San Antonio Spurs Contributor | Nov 2 vs UTA | Nov 4 vs DAL | Nov 6 @ SAC | Nov 7 @ POR | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama SAS · Points | 26.5 | 26.5 | 28.5 | 27.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Dylan Harper SAS · Points | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Stephon Castle SAS · Points | 16.5 | 15.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| De'Aaron Fox SAS · Points | 15.5 | 14.5 | 15.5 | 14.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Devin Vassell SAS · Points | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Keldon Johnson prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | DAL @ SAS | Rebounds | Over 3.5 (-155) · DraftKings | 4.5 | 5 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Johnson's established rebounding production in reserve minutes supports the modest four-board requirement.
Counter-Case: Accurate Dallas shooting can leave Johnson with too few defensive misses to pursue. Bigger lineups or early fouls can also remove the reserve minutes that supply his rebounding opportunities.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |