Posted Line Trajectory: Trending Up (+1.0 over 6 games)Settled / Live Release · Full Dossier Unlocked

Dylan Harper Assists Prop (Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs, Nov 4, 8:30 PM CT): Fair Line 6.0 (-251) vs 4.5 Market

Name: Dylan Harper Posted Assists Line Trajectory & DAL @ SAS Nucleus Drift
Creator: WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk
Published: 2026-11-04T10:48:04+00:00

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released Wed, Nov 4, 4:48 AM CT · Last updated (CT) Sat, Nov 7, 10:56 AM CT

ProphetX: Over 4.5 (-120)Modeled Edge: +32.6% EV · Fair Value 6.0 (-251)

Pick & Release Line: OVER 4.5 (-120); BetMGM
Modeled Fair Line: 6.0; 1.5 Pt Delta
Modeled Fair Price: -251; +32.6% EV
Posted Line Drift: 3.5 → 4.5 (+1.0); Last 6 Active Games
Matchup (CT): DAL @ SAS; Nov 4, 8:30 PM CT
NBA Props Lane CLV: 73 / 11 / 36; Beat / Tied / Lost

Sportsbook Posted Assists Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)

Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.

Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (6.0 / -251)

Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 24 to Nov 4), sportsbooks adjusted Dylan Harper's posted assists line upward in 1 of 5 game-over-game steps from 3.5 to 4.5 (+1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for DAL @ SAS is 6.0 (-251).

6-Game Posted Assists Ledger (Dylan Harper)

America/Chicago (CT)

Date (CT)	Matchup	Posted Line	Move	Actual	Result
Oct 24	SAS @ DAL	3.5 (-150)	—	2	Under
Oct 27	SAC @ SAS	4.5 (+116)	+1.0	6	Over
Oct 28	SAS @ UTA	4.5 (+115)	0.0	8	Over
Oct 31	MIN @ SAS	4.5 (-115)	0.0	6	Over
Nov 2	UTA @ SAS	4.5 (-118)	0.0	8	Over
Nov 4	DAL @ SAS	4.5 (-120)	0.0	0	Under

Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.

Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).

ProphetX: Over 4.5 (-120)DraftKings: Over 4.5 (-120)FanDuel: Over 4.5 (-120)BetMGM: Over 4.5 (-120)Trade on Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1

Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Balanced Pricing6-Game Window

Dylan Harper Assists Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)

Book step adjustment (+1.0) tracks actual window production (+1.5).

Unpriced Book Step-Lag+0.5Max Single-Game Book Step: +1.0

Window Open Line: 3.5
Current Posted Line: 4.5
Book Cumulative Step: +1.0
Actual Window Avg: 5.0
Actual Output Delta: +1.5
Modeled Fair Value: 6.0 (-251)

Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output

Book Line Actual Stat

Game (CT)	Posted Line	Book Step	Actual	Box Surplus
Oct 24 · @ DAL	3.5	—	2	-1.5
Oct 27 · vs SAC	4.5	+1.0	6	+1.5
Oct 28 · @ UTA	4.5	0.0	8	+3.5
Oct 31 · vs MIN	4.5	0.0	6	+1.5
Nov 2 · vs UTA	4.5	0.0	8	+3.5
Nov 4 · vs DAL	4.5	0.0	0	-4.5

WagerBird Write-Up · Dylan Harper Assists (Over 4.5)

Full Dossier Unlocked

Write-Up Thesis

Harper's larger starting workload and sustained recent creation support another five-assist performance.

01 · Fundamental Driver

Repeated creation

6, 8, 6, 8 AST · LAST 4 GAMES — Harper supplied six, eight, six and eight assists across his last four games. Reaching the target does not require matching the top of that sequence, leaving room for fewer converted passes while retaining a productive creation night.

02 · Fundamental Driver

Expanded starting workload

32.7 MPG NOW · 22.6 MPG LAST SEASON — Harper's current workload is approximately 32.7 minutes per game, compared with 22.6 last season. The additional floor time creates more possessions in which he can initiate, rather than requiring an exceptional assist rate in a short reserve appearance.

Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors

Thesis Invalidation Risks

Fox and Castle can direct more possessions while Harper attacks as a scorer. Poor finishing or an abbreviated fourth-quarter stint can strand useful passes without enough assists. A subdued shooting game consistent with the first-half scoring read would also work against this play.

Settlement Rule: CASHES DYLAN HARPER FULL GAME ASSISTS OVER 4.5 WITH AT LEAST 5 ASSISTS; NO PUSH.

WagerBird Nucleus Drift · Team Prop Signal

DAL @ SAS · San Antonio Spurs Points Nucleus Drift (Nov 4, 8:30 PM CT)

Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across San Antonio Spurs's 5 primary contributors.

SAS Nucleus Drift2 of 5 Core Props Adjusted DownMarket Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish

San Antonio Spurs Contributor	Nov 2 vs UTA	Nov 4 vs DAL	Nov 6 @ SAC	Nov 7 @ POR	Game-Over-Game Move	Trend Badge
Victor Wembanyama SAS · Points	26.5	26.5	28.5	27.5	0.0	Flat →
Dylan Harper SAS · Points	16.5	16.5	16.5	16.5	0.0	Flat →
Stephon Castle SAS · Points	16.5	15.5	16.5	16.5	-1.0	Trending Down ↓
De'Aaron Fox SAS · Points	15.5	14.5	15.5	14.5	-1.0	Trending Down ↓
Devin Vassell SAS · Points	11.5	11.5	11.5	11.5	0.0	Flat →

San Antonio Spurs (SAS)2 of 5 Core Props Adjusted Down

Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish

Dallas Mavericks (DAL)5 of 5 Core Props Adjusted Down

Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish

Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team dossiers.

San Antonio Spurs team page →

Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up

Dylan Harper Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (1 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)

1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Dylan Harper prop write-up.

Dylan Harper CLV Counts

1 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost

1 Settled CLV Receipt

Date (CT)	Matchup	Market	Release Quote	Closing Line	Actual	CLV Grade	Write-Up
Nov 4	DAL @ SAS	Assists	Over 4.5 (-117) · ProphetX	4.5	0	Beat	Read Write-Up →

Archived Settled Dylan Harper Prop Write-Ups

Nov 4 CT · DAL @ SAS · AssistsFull Write-Up →

Harper's larger starting workload and sustained recent creation support another five-assist performance.

Counter-Case: Fox and Castle can direct more possessions while Harper attacks as a scorer. Poor finishing or an abbreviated fourth-quarter stint can strand useful passes without enough assists. A subdued shooting game consistent with the first-half scoring read would also work against this play.

NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)

WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)

Prop Lane Window	Beat Close	Tied Close	Lost Close
Season to date (from Sep 23 CT)	73	11	36
Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT)	73	11	36