By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 24 to Nov 4), De'Aaron Fox's posted points line has held net flat at 14.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for DAL @ SAS is 17.4 (-215).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAS @ DAL | 14.5 (-118) | — | 19 | Over | |
| SAC @ SAS | 15.5 (-106) | +1.0 | 11 | Under | |
| SAS @ UTA | 15.5 (-111) | 0.0 | 14 | Under | |
| MIN @ SAS | 15.5 (-109) | 0.0 | 22 | Over | |
| UTA @ SAS | 15.5 (-105) | 0.0 | 12 | Under | |
| DAL @ SAS | 14.5 (-120) | -1.0 | 10 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 3 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.2).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 · @ DAL | 14.5 | — | 19 | +4.5 |
| Oct 27 · vs SAC | 15.5 | +1.0 | 11 | -4.5 |
| Oct 28 · @ UTA | 15.5 | 0.0 | 14 | -1.5 |
| Oct 31 · vs MIN | 15.5 | 0.0 | 22 | +6.5 |
| Nov 2 · vs UTA | 15.5 | 0.0 | 12 | -3.5 |
| Nov 4 · vs DAL | 14.5 | -1.0 | 10 | -4.5 |
A competitive starter workload gives Fox a reasonable path beyond a scoring requirement below both his current and prior-season averages.
15.9 PPG NOW · 18.6 PPG LAST SEASON — Fox averages 15.9 points this season after averaging 18.6 last season. The scoring route does not require him to reclaim a dominant share of the offense, only enough finishing alongside his distribution duties.
12 PTS IN 21:55 · 22 PTS IN 34:57 — Fox's latest 12-point game came in 21:55 during a comfortable victory, while the preceding game produced 22 points in 34:57. A tighter finish can restore opportunities that disappear when the starters leave early.
The other San Antonio creators can leave Fox distributing rather than finishing possessions. Another comfortable win can take away his closing minutes. A genuinely low-scoring performance consistent with the first-half scoring read would also make this scoring target harder to reach.
Settlement Rule: CASHES DE'AARON FOX FULL GAME POINTS OVER 14.5 WITH AT LEAST 15 POINTS; NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across San Antonio Spurs's 5 primary contributors.
| San Antonio Spurs Contributor | Nov 2 vs UTA | Nov 4 vs DAL | Nov 6 @ SAC | Nov 7 @ POR | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama SAS · Points | 26.5 | 26.5 | 28.5 | 26.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Dylan Harper SAS · Points | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Stephon Castle SAS · Points | 16.5 | 15.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| De'Aaron Fox SAS · Points | 15.5 | 14.5 | 15.5 | 14.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Devin Vassell SAS · Points | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled De'Aaron Fox prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | DAL @ SAS | Points | Over 14.5 (-125) · Fanatics | 14.5 | 10 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
A competitive starter workload gives Fox a reasonable path beyond a scoring requirement below both his current and prior-season averages.
Counter-Case: The other San Antonio creators can leave Fox distributing rather than finishing possessions. Another comfortable win can take away his closing minutes. A genuinely low-scoring performance consistent with the first-half scoring read would also make this scoring target harder to reach.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |