By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Josh Giddey's assists line at 8.5 for CHI @ TOR (Oct 21). WagerBird's modeled fair line for CHI @ TOR is 8.2 (-118).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI @ TOR | 8.5 (+102) | — | 6 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Insufficient 6-game box-score history to measure book step-lag.
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · @ TOR | 8.5 | — | 6 | -2.5 |
A slower possession environment and more secondary creation can reduce credited assists despite a substantial lead-guard workload.
102.5 CHI PACE · 98.4 TOR PACE — Chicago played faster than Toronto last season. A matchup closer to the midpoint reduces the number of possessions available to generate a final pass, even with a normal lead-guard stint.
9.1 GIDDEY AST · 2.5 POWELL AST — Giddey's previous-season average was 9.1 assists, while the incoming Powell averaged 2.5. Possessions that end with Powell drawing help and passing to a shooter can still produce efficient offense without adding an assist to Giddey's total.
The primary distributor can retain control of the final pass even when another creator shares the floor. Traps can produce easy release passes that teammates convert immediately. A close finish or unusually accurate shooting can supply the extra assisted baskets.
Settlement Rule: CASHES JOSH GIDDEY UNDER 8.5 ASSISTS AT EIGHT OR FEWER; NO PUSH IS POSSIBLE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Chicago Bulls's 5 primary contributors.
| Chicago Bulls Contributor | Oct 28 vs NYK | Oct 30 @ BOS | Nov 2 @ PHI | Nov 4 @ NYK | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell CHI · Points | 18.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Matas Buzelis CHI · Points | 13.5 | 13.5 | 14.5 | 12.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Josh Giddey CHI · Points | 10.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Jalen Smith CHI · Points | 10.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Leonard Miller CHI · Points | 9.5 | 8.5 | 7.5 | — | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 active Josh Giddey prop write-up tracked awaiting closing line settlement.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | CHI @ TOR | Assists | Under 8.5 (+109) · DraftKings | 8.5 | 6 | — | Read Write-Up → |
A slower possession environment and more secondary creation can reduce credited assists despite a substantial lead-guard workload.
Counter-Case: The primary distributor can retain control of the final pass even when another creator shares the floor. Traps can produce easy release passes that teammates convert immediately. A close finish or unusually accurate shooting can supply the extra assisted baskets.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |