By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted rebounds total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Jalen Smith's rebounds line at 7.5 for CHI @ TOR (Oct 21). WagerBird's modeled fair line for CHI @ TOR is 8.2 (-148).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI @ TOR | 7.5 (+112) | — | 8 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Insufficient 6-game box-score history to measure book step-lag.
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · @ TOR | 7.5 | — | 8 | +0.5 |
Additional center minutes can lift an established rebounding rate past a modest threshold without requiring improved efficiency.
6.7 REB · 20.7 MIN — Smith averaged 6.7 rebounds in 20.7 minutes last season. More time in the same interior role creates additional chances to finish defensive possessions without requiring a better rebounding rate.
CLAXTON OUT · 26 PROJECTED MIN — Claxton is Out, and Smith was part of Chicago's last preseason starting group. The projected 26-minute stint gives him more opportunities to remain near the rim through the end of possessions.
The returning reserve center can take a larger share of the interior minutes, and early fouls can interrupt the starting stint. Efficient opponent shooting can leave fewer misses to collect. A rebound-hunting guard can also claim some of the same defensive boards.
Settlement Rule: CASHES JALEN SMITH OVER 7.5 REBOUNDS AT EIGHT OR MORE; NO PUSH IS POSSIBLE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Chicago Bulls's 5 primary contributors.
| Chicago Bulls Contributor | Oct 28 vs NYK | Oct 30 @ BOS | Nov 2 @ PHI | Nov 4 @ NYK | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell CHI · Points | 18.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Matas Buzelis CHI · Points | 13.5 | 13.5 | 14.5 | 12.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Josh Giddey CHI · Points | 10.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Jalen Smith CHI · Points | 10.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Leonard Miller CHI · Points | 9.5 | 8.5 | 7.5 | — | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Jalen Smith prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | CHI @ TOR | Rebounds | Over 7.5 (+118) · DraftKings | 7.5 | 8 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Additional center minutes can lift an established rebounding rate past a modest threshold without requiring improved efficiency.
Counter-Case: The returning reserve center can take a larger share of the interior minutes, and early fouls can interrupt the starting stint. Efficient opponent shooting can leave fewer misses to collect. A rebound-hunting guard can also claim some of the same defensive boards.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |