By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted rebounds total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 20 to Nov 1), Jayson Tatum's posted rebounds line has held net flat at 8.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for BOS @ ORL is 7.5 (-184).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS @ DET | 8.5 (-111) | — | 4 | Under | |
| NYK @ BOS | 8.5 (-102) | 0.0 | 9 | Over | |
| CHI @ BOS | 8.5 (-125) | 0.0 | 7 | Under | |
| BKN @ BOS | 8.5 (+105) | 0.0 | 5 | Under | |
| CHI @ BOS | 8.5 (+110) | 0.0 | 7 | Under | |
| BOS @ ORL | 8.5 (+115) | 0.0 | 4 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Books adjusted 0.0 vs. -2.5 actual output delta (-2.5 Book Over-Adjustment).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 · @ DET | 8.5 | — | 4 | -4.5 |
| Oct 23 · vs NYK | 8.5 | 0.0 | 9 | +0.5 |
| Oct 26 · vs CHI | 8.5 | 0.0 | 7 | -1.5 |
| Oct 27 · vs BKN | 8.5 | 0.0 | 5 | -3.5 |
| Oct 30 · vs CHI | 8.5 | 0.0 | 7 | -1.5 |
| Nov 1 · @ ORL | 8.5 | 0.0 | 4 | -4.5 |
Tatum's opening rebounding production has remained below the required total despite already playing substantial minutes.
6.3 RPG · 36.1 MIN · FIRST 4 GAMES — Tatum averaged 6.3 rebounds while already playing 36.1 minutes through four games. The 36-minute expectation does not rely on a reduction in his normal court time.
7 REB · 35 MIN LATEST — His latest appearance supplied seven rebounds in 35 minutes. The 7.5-rebound forecast moves above that result but does not assume that a similar workload automatically produces a much larger board total.
Robinson sitting could shift Tatum into more interior minutes and give him a larger share of defensive boards. Orlando's misses could then turn a routine Boston lead into a strong rebounding night for him.
Settlement Rule: CASHES WITH EIGHT OR FEWER JAYSON TATUM REBOUNDS; NO PUSH AT 8.5.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Boston Celtics's 5 primary contributors.
| Boston Celtics Contributor | Nov 1 @ ORL | Nov 2 @ HOU | Nov 4 vs MIL | Nov 6 @ CHA | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum BOS · Points | 26.5 | 27.5 | 27.5 | 26.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Paul George BOS · Points | 18.5 | 17.5 | 21.5 | 17.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Payton Pritchard BOS · Points | 14.5 | 15.5 | 19.5 | 13.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Derrick White BOS · Points | 13.5 | 14.5 | 17.5 | 13.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Neemias Queta BOS · Points | 9.5 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 9.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ |
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Jayson Tatum prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | BOS @ ORL | Rebounds | Under 8.5 (-132) · FanDuel | 8.5 | 4 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 20 | BOS @ DET | Rebounds | Over 8.5 (-115) · FanDuel | 8.5 | 4 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Tatum's opening rebounding production has remained below the required total despite already playing substantial minutes.
Counter-Case: Robinson sitting could shift Tatum into more interior minutes and give him a larger share of defensive boards. Orlando's misses could then turn a routine Boston lead into a strong rebounding night for him.
Tatum's strong rebounding involvement supports the required total with a normal starting workload.
Counter-Case: Robinson and Queta can gather the defensive misses before Tatum reaches them, while Detroit's bigs can keep him occupied with box-outs. Shorter stints or unusually accurate shooting at both ends can remove the remaining opportunities.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |