By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted rebounds total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 20 to Nov 1), Payton Pritchard's posted rebounds line has held net flat at 3.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for BOS @ ORL is 2.8 (-225).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS @ DET | 3.5 (+125) | — | 4 | Over | |
| NYK @ BOS | 3.5 (+120) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| CHI @ BOS | 3.5 (+120) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| BKN @ BOS | 2.5 (-150) | -1.0 | 2 | Under | |
| CHI @ BOS | 2.5 (-159) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| BOS @ ORL | 3.5 (+130) | +1.0 | 7 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (-0.5).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 · @ DET | 3.5 | — | 4 | +0.5 |
| Oct 23 · vs NYK | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Oct 26 · vs CHI | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Oct 27 · vs BKN | 2.5 | -1.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 30 · vs CHI | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Nov 1 · @ ORL | 3.5 | +1.0 | 7 | +3.5 |
Pritchard's current rebounding rate supports a modest total even with a useful bench workload.
2.0 RPG · 26.1 MIN · FIRST 4 GAMES — Pritchard averaged two rebounds in 26.1 minutes over the first four games. A 29-minute expectation increases his opportunity without assuming a major change in where he collects misses.
3 REB · 35 MIN LATEST — He finished with three rebounds despite playing 35 minutes in the latest game. That result shows how a substantial appearance can still produce only a limited board contribution.
A longer Pritchard stint or a smaller Boston lineup could put more misses within his reach. Long rebounds from perimeter attempts can also produce the extra board even when his usual interior involvement stays limited.
Settlement Rule: CASHES WITH THREE OR FEWER PAYTON PRITCHARD REBOUNDS; NO PUSH AT 3.5.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Boston Celtics's 5 primary contributors.
| Boston Celtics Contributor | Nov 1 @ ORL | Nov 2 @ HOU | Nov 4 vs MIL | Nov 6 @ CHA | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum BOS · Points | 26.5 | 27.5 | 27.5 | 26.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Paul George BOS · Points | 18.5 | 17.5 | 21.5 | 17.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Payton Pritchard BOS · Points | 14.5 | 15.5 | 19.5 | 13.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Derrick White BOS · Points | 13.5 | 14.5 | 17.5 | 13.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Neemias Queta BOS · Points | 9.5 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 9.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ |
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Payton Pritchard prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | BOS @ ORL | Rebounds | Under 3.5 (-155) · DraftKings | 3.5 | 7 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Pritchard's current rebounding rate supports a modest total even with a useful bench workload.
Counter-Case: A longer Pritchard stint or a smaller Boston lineup could put more misses within his reach. Long rebounds from perimeter attempts can also produce the extra board even when his usual interior involvement stays limited.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |