01 · Fundamental Driver
Creation to redistribute
SUGGS OUT · BANCHERO OUT — Suggs and Banchero are Out, and Black is in Orlando's expected starting group. Their absences leave more initiation work for the available guards and wings.
Posted Line Trajectory: Trending Up (+1.0 over 4 games)Settled / Live Release · Full Dossier Unlocked
Anthony Black Assists Prop (Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic, ): Fair Line 4.8 (-240) vs 3.5 Market
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
ProphetX: Over 3.5 (-135)Modeled Edge: +24.5% EV · Fair Value 4.8 (-240)
- Pick & Release Line
- OVER 3.5 (-135)
- Caesars
- Modeled Fair Line
- 4.8
- 1.3 Pt Delta
- Modeled Fair Price
- -240
- +24.5% EV
- Posted Line Drift
- 2.5 → 3.5 (+1.0)
- Last 4 Active Games
- Matchup (CT)
- BOS @ ORL
- NBA Props Lane CLV
- 73 / 11 / 36
- Beat / Tied / Lost
Sportsbook Posted Assists Line Trajectory (Last 4 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (4.8 / -240)
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 4 active games (Oct 25 to Nov 1), sportsbooks adjusted Anthony Black's posted assists line upward in 1 of 3 game-over-game steps from 2.5 to 3.5 (+1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for BOS @ ORL is 4.8 (-240).
4-Game Posted Assists Ledger (Anthony Black)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL @ NYK | 2.5 (+125) | — | 5 | Over | |
| ORL @ TOR | 3.5 (-135) | +1.0 | 1 | Under | |
| ORL @ TOR | 3.5 (-130) | 0.0 | 10 | Over | |
| BOS @ ORL | 3.5 (-135) | 0.0 | 3 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Book Lagging Production4-Game Window
Anthony Black Assists Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Actual output +2.3 vs. +1.0 book step adjustment (+1.3 Unpriced Book Lag).
Unpriced Book Step-Lag+1.3Max Single-Game Book Step: +1.0
- Window Open Line
- 2.5
- Current Posted Line
- 3.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- +1.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 4.8
- Actual Output Delta
- +2.3
- Modeled Fair Value
- 4.8 (-240)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 · @ NYK | 2.5 | — | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 28 · @ TOR | 3.5 | +1.0 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Oct 30 · @ TOR | 3.5 | 0.0 | 10 | +6.5 |
| Nov 1 · vs BOS | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
WagerBird Write-Up · Anthony Black Assists (Over 3.5)
Full Dossier UnlockedWrite-Up Thesis
Orlando's missing creators leave Black with a credible starting role and enough passing responsibility to reach four assists.
02 · Fundamental Driver
Passing production already present
5.3 APG · 10 AST IN 31 MIN LATEST — Black averages 5.3 assists in his three appearances and supplied ten in 31 minutes in the latest game. A 4.8-assist expectation reduces that latest result considerably while preserving the expanded passing opportunity.
Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Thesis Invalidation Risks
A lower-scoring Orlando performance would leave good passes without made shots. Wagner can also keep more possessions in his own hands and reduce Black's finishing passes.
Settlement Rule: CASHES WITH FOUR OR MORE ANTHONY BLACK ASSISTS; NO PUSH AT 3.5.
WagerBird Nucleus Drift · Team Prop Signal
BOS @ ORL · Orlando Magic Points Nucleus Drift ()
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Orlando Magic's 5 primary contributors.
ORL Nucleus Drift3 of 5 Core Props Adjusted DownMarket Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
| Orlando Magic Contributor | Nov 1 vs BOS | Nov 2 vs WAS | Nov 5 @ PHX | Nov 7 @ GSW | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner ORL · Points | 21.5 | 24.5 | 23.5 | 24.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Desmond Bane ORL · Points | 19.5 | 21.5 | 20.5 | 19.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Anthony Black ORL · Points | 13.5 | 14.5 | 15.5 | 17.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Wendell Carter Jr. ORL · Points | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 12.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Tristan da Silva ORL · Points | 10.5 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 14.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Orlando Magic (ORL)3 of 5 Core Props Adjusted Down
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Boston Celtics (BOS)4 of 5 Core Props Adjusted Down
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team dossiers.
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up
Anthony Black Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 1 Lost)
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Anthony Black prop write-up.
Anthony Black CLV Counts
0 Beat · 0 Tied · 1 Lost
1 Settled CLV Receipt| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | BOS @ ORL | Assists | Over 3.5 (-131) · ProphetX | 3.5 | 3 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Anthony Black Prop Write-Ups
Nov 1 CT · BOS @ ORL · AssistsFull Write-Up →
Orlando's missing creators leave Black with a credible starting role and enough passing responsibility to reach four assists.
Counter-Case: A lower-scoring Orlando performance would leave good passes without made shots. Wagner can also keep more possessions in his own hands and reduce Black's finishing passes.
NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |