By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted rebounds total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Jayson Tatum's rebounds line at 8.5 for BOS @ DET (Oct 20). WagerBird's modeled fair line for BOS @ DET is 9.8 (-184).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS @ DET | 8.5 (-111) | — | 4 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Insufficient 6-game box-score history to measure book step-lag.
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 · @ DET | 8.5 | — | 4 | -4.5 |
Tatum's strong rebounding involvement supports the required total with a normal starting workload.
10.0 REB · 16.8% REBOUND RATE · 16 GAMES — Tatum averaged 10.0 rebounds and posted a 16.8% total rebound rate during his return last season. That involvement gives him a meaningful rebounding role rather than relying only on occasional long misses.
32.6 PRIOR MIN · 34 EXPECTED MIN — Tatum's prior-season average was 32.6 minutes, and the expected workload here is 34 minutes. He rested the final exhibition and is expected to be full go for the opener, supporting time on the court to accumulate boards.
Robinson and Queta can gather the defensive misses before Tatum reaches them, while Detroit's bigs can keep him occupied with box-outs. Shorter stints or unusually accurate shooting at both ends can remove the remaining opportunities.
Settlement Rule: CASHES JAYSON TATUM FULL GAME REBOUNDS OVER 8.5 WITH AT LEAST 9 REBOUNDS; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Boston Celtics's 5 primary contributors.
| Boston Celtics Contributor | Nov 1 @ ORL | Nov 2 @ HOU | Nov 4 vs MIL | Nov 6 @ CHA | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum BOS · Points | 26.5 | 27.5 | 27.5 | 26.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Paul George BOS · Points | 18.5 | 17.5 | 21.5 | 17.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Payton Pritchard BOS · Points | 14.5 | 15.5 | 19.5 | 13.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Derrick White BOS · Points | 13.5 | 14.5 | 17.5 | 13.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Neemias Queta BOS · Points | 9.5 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 9.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Jayson Tatum prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | BOS @ ORL | Rebounds | Under 8.5 (-132) · FanDuel | 8.5 | 4 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 20 | BOS @ DET | Rebounds | Over 8.5 (-115) · FanDuel | 8.5 | 4 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Tatum's opening rebounding production has remained below the required total despite already playing substantial minutes.
Counter-Case: Robinson sitting could shift Tatum into more interior minutes and give him a larger share of defensive boards. Orlando's misses could then turn a routine Boston lead into a strong rebounding night for him.
Tatum's strong rebounding involvement supports the required total with a normal starting workload.
Counter-Case: Robinson and Queta can gather the defensive misses before Tatum reaches them, while Detroit's bigs can keep him occupied with box-outs. Shorter stints or unusually accurate shooting at both ends can remove the remaining opportunities.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |