By WAGERBIRD® Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (ET)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WAGERBIRD Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Nov 1 to Nov 10), Jayson Tatum's posted assists line has held net flat at 6.5. WAGERBIRD's modeled fair line for BOS @ PHI is 8.3.
Canonical pre-game posted line across 6 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.3 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.3 Unpriced Book Lag).
Tatum's established distributing role and perimeter finishing options support a sustained assist total.
7.8 AST · 33.8 MIN — Tatum averages 7.8 assists in 33.8 minutes, making passing a substantial part of his current production. He can accumulate credited setups without needing a sudden change in his offensive responsibilities.
8.1 + 5.2 3PA — George and White average 8.1 and 5.2 three-point attempts, respectively. Their willingness to shoot gives Tatum direct finishing options when help arrives against his drives.
Philadelphia can stay attached to the shooters and invite Tatum to finish possessions himself. Missed open jumpers can also waste otherwise productive passing possessions.
Settlement Rule: CASHES JAYSON TATUM FULL GAME ASSISTS OVER 6.5 WITH AT LEAST 7 ASSISTS; NO PUSH ON THE HALF.
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Boston Celtics's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
-15.8 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 93.7 vs. 109.5 Posted Team Total)
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Jayson Tatum prop write-up.
Tatum’s season assist average and recent nine-assist outing support another high-creation game.
Counter-Case: Tatum’s recent workload has varied, including a rest absence in the prior meeting with Milwaukee. Boston can also score through other creators, and missed teammate shots do not become assists.
WAGERBIRD grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 9 ET).
