By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 3 active games (Oct 21 to Oct 25), sportsbooks adjusted Franz Wagner's posted points line upward in 1 of 2 game-over-game steps from 21.5 to 22.5 (+1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for ORL @ NYK is 24.0 (-161).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ ORL | 21.5 (+100) | — | 22 | Over | |
| MIN @ ORL | 21.5 (+100) | 0.0 | 18 | Under | |
| ORL @ NYK | 22.5 (-111) | +1.0 | 23 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Books adjusted +1.0 vs. -0.5 actual output delta (-1.5 Book Over-Adjustment).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · vs ATL | 21.5 | — | 22 | +0.5 |
| Oct 23 · vs MIN | 21.5 | 0.0 | 18 | -3.5 |
| Oct 25 · @ NYK | 22.5 | +1.0 | 23 | +0.5 |
Banchero's absence concentrates enough scoring responsibility on Wagner to support a larger workload.
20.6 PTS · 30.0 MIN — Wagner averaged 20.6 points in 30.0 minutes last season. Extending that established scoring workload provides a route to higher production without demanding a sudden improvement in shooting efficiency.
BANCHERO OUT · 34 PROJECTED MIN — Banchero is Out with a right high ankle sprain. That leaves more initiation work available and supports longer Wagner shifts, with 34 minutes projected rather than relying only on hotter shooting.
New York can load help toward Wagner's driving lanes and make him give the ball up. A comfortable home lead would also threaten his closing minutes in a game where Orlando's scoring is already expected to be limited.
Settlement Rule: CASHES WITH FRANZ WAGNER SCORING AT LEAST 22 POINTS; NO PUSH AT 21.5.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Orlando Magic's 5 primary contributors.
| Orlando Magic Contributor | Nov 1 vs BOS | Nov 2 vs WAS | Nov 5 @ PHX | Nov 7 @ GSW | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner ORL · Points | 21.5 | 24.5 | 23.5 | 24.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Desmond Bane ORL · Points | 19.5 | 21.5 | 20.5 | 19.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Jalen Suggs ORL · Points | — | — | — | — | +2.0 | — | Trending Up ↑ |
| Wendell Carter Jr. ORL · Points | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 13.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Tristan da Silva ORL · Points | 10.5 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 14.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ |
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Franz Wagner prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | ORL @ NYK | Points | Over 21.5 (-115) · DraftKings | 22.5 | 23 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Banchero's absence concentrates enough scoring responsibility on Wagner to support a larger workload.
Counter-Case: New York can load help toward Wagner's driving lanes and make him give the ball up. A comfortable home lead would also threaten his closing minutes in a game where Orlando's scoring is already expected to be limited.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |