Posted Line Trajectory: Trending Down (-1.0 over 6 games)Settled / Live Release · Full Dossier Unlocked

Derrick White Points Prop (Boston Celtics @ Charlotte Hornets, Nov 6, 6:00 PM CT): Fair Line 12.3 (-228) vs 13.5 Market

Name: Derrick White Posted Points Line Trajectory & BOS @ CHA Nucleus Drift
Creator: WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk
Published: 2026-11-06T11:03:20+00:00

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released Fri, Nov 6, 5:03 AM CT · Last updated (CT) Sat, Nov 7, 10:56 AM CT

DraftKings: Under 13.5 (-117)Modeled Edge: +25.6% EV · Fair Value 12.3 (-228)

Pick & Release Line: UNDER 13.5 (-104); FanDuel
Modeled Fair Line: 12.3; 1.2 Pt Delta
Modeled Fair Price: -228; +25.6% EV
Posted Line Drift: 14.5 → 13.5 (-1.0); Last 6 Active Games
Matchup (CT): BOS @ CHA; Nov 6, 6:00 PM CT
NBA Props Lane CLV: 73 / 11 / 36; Beat / Tied / Lost

Sportsbook Posted Points Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)

Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.

Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (12.3 / -228)

Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 27 to Nov 6), sportsbooks adjusted Derrick White's posted points line downward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 14.5 to 13.5 (-1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for BOS @ CHA is 12.3 (-228).

6-Game Posted Points Ledger (Derrick White)

America/Chicago (CT)

Date (CT)	Matchup	Posted Line	Move	Actual	Result
Oct 27	BKN @ BOS	14.5 (-122)	—	16	Over
Oct 30	CHI @ BOS	15.5 (-115)	+1.0	9	Under
Nov 1	BOS @ ORL	13.5 (-120)	-2.0	12	Under
Nov 2	BOS @ HOU	14.5 (+100)	+1.0	7	Under
Nov 4	MIL @ BOS	17.5 (+108)	+3.0	24	Over
Nov 6	BOS @ CHA	13.5 (-104)	-4.0	18	Over

Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.

Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).

DraftKings: Under 13.5 (-117)FanDuel: Under 13.5 (-117)BetMGM: Under 13.5 (-117)Caesars: Under 13.5 (-117)Trade on Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1

Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Balanced Pricing6-Game Window

Derrick White Points Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)

Book step adjustment (-1.0) tracks actual window production (-0.2).

Unpriced Book Step-Lag+0.8Max Single-Game Book Step: -4.0

Window Open Line: 14.5
Current Posted Line: 13.5
Book Cumulative Step: -1.0
Actual Window Avg: 14.3
Actual Output Delta: -0.2
Modeled Fair Value: 12.3 (-228)

Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output

Book Line Actual Stat

Game (CT)	Posted Line	Book Step	Actual	Box Surplus
Oct 27 · vs BKN	14.5	—	16	+1.5
Oct 30 · vs CHI	15.5	+1.0	9	-6.5
Nov 1 · @ ORL	13.5	-2.0	12	-1.5
Nov 2 · @ HOU	14.5	+1.0	7	-7.5
Nov 4 · vs MIL	17.5	+3.0	24	+6.5
Nov 6 · @ CHA	13.5	-4.0	18	+4.5

WagerBird Write-Up · Derrick White Points (Under 13.5)

Full Dossier Unlocked

Write-Up Thesis

Tatum's return reduces the need for White to repeat the shooting and free-throw workload of his latest appearance.

01 · Fundamental Driver

Ordinary scoring workload

12.8 PPG · 32 EXPECTED MIN — White is averaging 12.8 points, with 32 minutes expected in this matchup. A regular rotation stint can still leave his scoring modest when the offense has other primary creators.

02 · Fundamental Driver

A different possession split

24 PTS · 18 FGA · 9 FTA LAST GAME — White's latest 24 points came on 18 shots and nine free-throw attempts while Tatum rested. With Tatum returning, the same shoot-first burden is not necessary for the starting offense.

Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors

Thesis Invalidation Risks

Extra ball-handling when the bench backcourt is short-handed could keep his attempt count elevated. Drives that draw fouls or a productive pull-up shooting night would defeat the expected scoring restraint.

Settlement Rule: CASHES DERRICK WHITE UNDER 14.5 POINTS WITH 0 TO 14 POINTS; NO PUSH AT THIS LINE.

WagerBird Nucleus Drift · Team Prop Signal

BOS @ CHA · Boston Celtics Points Nucleus Drift (Nov 6, 6:00 PM CT)

Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Boston Celtics's 5 primary contributors.

BOS Nucleus Drift5 of 5 Core Props Adjusted DownMarket Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish

Boston Celtics Contributor	Nov 1 @ ORL	Nov 2 @ HOU	Nov 4 vs MIL	Nov 6 @ CHA	Game-Over-Game Move	Trend Badge
Jayson Tatum BOS · Points	26.5	27.5	27.5	26.5	-1.0	Trending Down ↓
Paul George BOS · Points	18.5	17.5	21.5	17.5	-4.0	Trending Down ↓
Derrick White BOS · Points	13.5	14.5	17.5	13.5	-4.0	Trending Down ↓
Payton Pritchard BOS · Points	14.5	15.5	19.5	13.5	-6.0	Trending Down ↓
Neemias Queta BOS · Points	9.5	8.5	10.5	9.5	-1.0	Trending Down ↓

Boston Celtics (BOS)5 of 5 Core Props Adjusted Down

Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish

Charlotte Hornets (CHA)2 of 4 Core Props Adjusted Up

Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish

Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team dossiers.

Boston Celtics team page →

Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up

Derrick White Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (1 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)

1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Derrick White prop write-up.

Derrick White CLV Counts

1 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost

1 Settled CLV Receipt

Date (CT)	Matchup	Market	Release Quote	Closing Line	Actual	CLV Grade	Write-Up
Nov 6	BOS @ CHA	Points	Under 14.5 (-124) · DraftKings	13.5	18	Beat	Read Write-Up →

Archived Settled Derrick White Prop Write-Ups

Nov 6 CT · BOS @ CHA · PointsFull Write-Up →

Tatum's return reduces the need for White to repeat the shooting and free-throw workload of his latest appearance.

Counter-Case: Extra ball-handling when the bench backcourt is short-handed could keep his attempt count elevated. Drives that draw fouls or a productive pull-up shooting night would defeat the expected scoring restraint.

NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)

WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)

Prop Lane Window	Beat Close	Tied Close	Lost Close
Season to date (from Sep 23 CT)	73	11	36
Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT)	73	11	36