By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted 3-pointers made total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 2 active games (Oct 22 to Oct 24), Christian Braun's posted 3-pointers made line has held net flat at 1.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for NOP @ DEN is 1.3 (-168).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN @ OKC | 1.5 (+124) | — | 1 | Under | |
| NOP @ DEN | 1.5 (+120) | 0.0 | 0 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Books adjusted 0.0 vs. -1.0 actual output delta (-1.0 Book Over-Adjustment).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 · @ OKC | 1.5 | — | 1 | -0.5 |
| Oct 24 · vs NOP | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.5 |
Braun's low shooting usage keeps two made threes a demanding outcome even with extra wing minutes.
1.0 3PM · 3.3 3PA · 30.1% · 44 GAMES — Braun's previous-season shooting combined limited attempts with modest conversion. That combination leaves him reliant on either a meaningful volume increase or an unusually efficient night to make multiple threes.
14.8% USG · 33 PROJECTED MIN · 4.0 PROJECTED 3PA — His low usage places most of the finishing responsibility elsewhere in the lineup. Extra wing minutes can preserve his time on the floor without making perimeter shooting the main purpose of those possessions.
Johnson's absence can shift more catch-and-shoot possessions toward Braun. If he repeats the six-attempt workload from the opener and connects early, the bet can lose before late-game minutes matter.
Settlement Rule: CASHES CHRISTIAN BRAUN FULL GAME THREES UNDER 1.5 WITH 0 OR 1 MADE THREE; NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Denver Nuggets's 5 primary contributors.
| Denver Nuggets Contributor | Oct 30 @ PHX | Nov 2 vs POR | Nov 4 vs TOR | Nov 7 @ IND | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokić DEN · Points | 25.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 25.5 | +3.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Jamal Murray DEN · Points | 22.5 | 22.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 | +2.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Aaron Gordon DEN · Points | 14.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | +2.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| DeMar DeRozan DEN · Points | 12.5 | 11.5 | — | 11.5 | +2.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Christian Braun DEN · Points | 11.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | +2.0 | Trending Up ↑ |
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
2 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Christian Braun prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | GSW @ DEN | 3-Pointers Made | Under 1.5 (-138) · DraftKings | 1.5 | 1 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 24 | NOP @ DEN | 3-Pointers Made | Under 1.5 (-106) · FanDuel | 1.5 | 0 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Christian Braun’s complementary shooting role supports fewer than two made threes despite a full starter’s workload.
Counter-Case: With Cameron Johnson doubtful, Braun could inherit additional catch-and-shoot opportunities when the defense collapses on the primary scorers. A hot opening stretch or overtime can supply the second make before a late lead trims his minutes.
Braun's low shooting usage keeps two made threes a demanding outcome even with extra wing minutes.
Counter-Case: Johnson's absence can shift more catch-and-shoot possessions toward Braun. If he repeats the six-attempt workload from the opener and connects early, the bet can lose before late-game minutes matter.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |