By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted 3-pointers made total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 3 active games (Oct 22 to Oct 26), Christian Braun's posted 3-pointers made line has held net flat at 1.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for GSW @ DEN is 1.2 (-196).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN @ OKC | 1.5 (+124) | — | 1 | Under | |
| NOP @ DEN | 1.5 (+120) | 0.0 | 0 | Under | |
| GSW @ DEN | 1.5 (-138) | 0.0 | 1 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (-0.8).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 · @ OKC | 1.5 | — | 1 | -0.5 |
| Oct 24 · vs NOP | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Oct 26 · vs GSW | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -0.5 |
Christian Braun’s complementary shooting role supports fewer than two made threes despite a full starter’s workload.
44 G · 3.3 3PA · 1.0 3PM LAST SEASON — Braun averaged 1.0 made threes on 3.3 attempts across 44 games last season. That workload leaves the second make dependent on efficient spot-up shooting rather than a large supply of attempts. His current 0.5 makes on 4.5 attempts per game show that additional launches have not yet translated into greater production.
36.5 MIN · 10.5 FGA · 2 STARTS — Braun has 2 starts and 36.5 minutes per game, but his 10.5 field-goal attempts sit below Murray’s 18.0 and Jokić’s 21.0. Denver’s largest shot allocations remain with those primary options. Starter-level playing time can therefore coexist with a complementary perimeter workload.
With Cameron Johnson doubtful, Braun could inherit additional catch-and-shoot opportunities when the defense collapses on the primary scorers. A hot opening stretch or overtime can supply the second make before a late lead trims his minutes.
Settlement Rule: CASHES CHRISTIAN BRAUN FULL GAME MADE THREES UNDER 1.5 WITH ZERO OR ONE MADE THREE; NO PUSH IS POSSIBLE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Denver Nuggets's 5 primary contributors.
| Denver Nuggets Contributor | Oct 30 @ PHX | Nov 2 vs POR | Nov 4 vs TOR | Nov 7 @ IND | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokić DEN · Points | 25.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 25.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Jamal Murray DEN · Points | 22.5 | 22.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Aaron Gordon DEN · Points | 14.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| DeMar DeRozan DEN · Points | 12.5 | 11.5 | — | 11.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Christian Braun DEN · Points | 11.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
2 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Christian Braun prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | GSW @ DEN | 3-Pointers Made | Under 1.5 (-138) · DraftKings | 1.5 | 1 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 24 | NOP @ DEN | 3-Pointers Made | Under 1.5 (-106) · FanDuel | 1.5 | 0 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Christian Braun’s complementary shooting role supports fewer than two made threes despite a full starter’s workload.
Counter-Case: With Cameron Johnson doubtful, Braun could inherit additional catch-and-shoot opportunities when the defense collapses on the primary scorers. A hot opening stretch or overtime can supply the second make before a late lead trims his minutes.
Braun's low shooting usage keeps two made threes a demanding outcome even with extra wing minutes.
Counter-Case: Johnson's absence can shift more catch-and-shoot possessions toward Braun. If he repeats the six-attempt workload from the opener and connects early, the bet can lose before late-game minutes matter.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |