By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 2 active games (Oct 22 to Oct 24), sportsbooks adjusted DeMar DeRozan's posted points line upward in 1 of 1 game-over-game steps from 12.5 to 14.5 (+2.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for NOP @ DEN is 16.5 (-174).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN @ OKC | 12.5 (-110) | — | 13 | Over | |
| NOP @ DEN | 14.5 (-115) | +2.0 | 12 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 2 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Books adjusted +2.0 vs. 0.0 actual output delta (-2.0 Book Over-Adjustment).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 · @ OKC | 12.5 | — | 13 | +0.5 |
| Oct 24 · vs NOP | 14.5 | +2.0 | 12 | -2.5 |
Denver's reserve-unit creation role gives DeRozan enough opportunity to reach the scoring threshold.
18.4 PTS · 31.2 MIN · 22.8% USG — DeRozan's Sacramento scoring rate supports useful production without requiring starter-level minutes. Denver can use that self-creation to finish possessions that otherwise lack a primary scorer.
28 PROJECTED MIN · 28:12 OPENER — Denver's plan to play reserves together places half-court creation responsibility on DeRozan while the leading starters rest. His opening-game workload shows a substantial reserve stint, allowing that role to generate attempts independently of the starting offense.
An extended closing run for the starters can remove a late scoring stint for DeRozan. When the reserve unit's touches shift toward other finishers, he may not accumulate enough attempts to reach fifteen points.
Settlement Rule: CASHES DEMAR DEROZAN FULL GAME POINTS OVER 14.5 WITH 15 OR MORE POINTS; NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Denver Nuggets's 5 primary contributors.
| Denver Nuggets Contributor | Oct 30 @ PHX | Nov 2 vs POR | Nov 4 vs TOR | Nov 7 @ IND | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokić DEN · Points | 25.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 25.5 | +3.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Jamal Murray DEN · Points | 22.5 | 22.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 | +2.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Aaron Gordon DEN · Points | 14.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | +2.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| DeMar DeRozan DEN · Points | 12.5 | 11.5 | — | 11.5 | +2.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Christian Braun DEN · Points | 11.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | +2.0 | Trending Up ↑ |
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled DeMar DeRozan prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | NOP @ DEN | Points | Over 14.5 (-117) · polymarket | 14.5 | 12 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Denver's reserve-unit creation role gives DeRozan enough opportunity to reach the scoring threshold.
Counter-Case: An extended closing run for the starters can remove a late scoring stint for DeRozan. When the reserve unit's touches shift toward other finishers, he may not accumulate enough attempts to reach fifteen points.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |