By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted rebounds total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 21 to Oct 30), sportsbooks adjusted Bobby Portis's posted rebounds line upward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 5.5 to 7.5 (+2.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for IND @ MIA is 8.1 (-140).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN @ MIA | 5.5 (-108) | — | 4 | Under | |
| DET @ MIA | 5.5 (+100) | 0.0 | 8 | Over | |
| MIA @ CHA | 5.5 (+106) | 0.0 | 8 | Over | |
| DAL @ MIA | 6.5 (+126) | +1.0 | 12 | Over | |
| MIA @ ATL | 6.5 (-137) | 0.0 | 9 | Over | |
| IND @ MIA | 7.5 (+127) | +1.0 | 3 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (+2.0) tracks actual window production (+1.8).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · vs MIN | 5.5 | — | 4 | -1.5 |
| Oct 23 · vs DET | 5.5 | 0.0 | 8 | +2.5 |
| Oct 24 · @ CHA | 5.5 | 0.0 | 8 | +2.5 |
| Oct 26 · vs DAL | 6.5 | +1.0 | 12 | +5.5 |
| Oct 28 · @ ATL | 6.5 | 0.0 | 9 | +2.5 |
| Oct 30 · vs IND | 7.5 | +1.0 | 3 | -4.5 |
Portis' strong collection rate can produce eight rebounds within an ordinary reserve workload.
8.2 REB · 24.0 MIN — Portis averages 8.2 rebounds in 24.0 minutes. His current collection does not require a starter's workload, making ordinary reserve minutes a viable route to the threshold.
9 REB · 20.4% TRB — He recorded nine rebounds and a 20.4% total-rebound rate in the latest game. His depth-chart assignments behind both frontcourt starters provide multiple substitution paths into those collection opportunities.
Long stretches for both starting big men can compress Portis' available minutes. Foul trouble or unusually accurate shooting by either team can reduce his chances to collect enough misses.
Settlement Rule: CASHES BOBBY PORTIS OVER 7.5 REBOUNDS WITH EIGHT OR MORE; NO PUSH AT THE HALF POINT.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Miami Heat's 5 primary contributors.
| Miami Heat Contributor | Oct 30 vs IND | Nov 2 @ LAL | Nov 4 @ LAC | Nov 5 @ GSW | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo MIA · Points | 31.5 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 28.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Bam Adebayo MIA · Points | 18.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 18.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Andrew Wiggins MIA · Points | 12.5 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 10.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Bobby Portis MIA · Points | 11.5 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Davion Mitchell MIA · Points | 11.5 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
1 active Bobby Portis prop write-up tracked awaiting closing line settlement.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | IND @ MIA | Rebounds | Over 7.5 (+133) · polymarket | 7.5 | 3 | — | Read Write-Up → |
Portis' strong collection rate can produce eight rebounds within an ordinary reserve workload.
Counter-Case: Long stretches for both starting big men can compress Portis' available minutes. Foul trouble or unusually accurate shooting by either team can reduce his chances to collect enough misses.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |