By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted 3-pointers made total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 21 to Oct 30), Bam Adebayo's posted 3-pointers made line has held net flat at 1.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for IND @ MIA is 1.1 (-254).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN @ MIA | 1.5 (-108) | — | 1 | Under | |
| DET @ MIA | 1.5 (-105) | 0.0 | 0 | Under | |
| MIA @ CHA | 1.5 (+112) | 0.0 | 2 | Over | |
| DAL @ MIA | 1.5 (+122) | 0.0 | 0 | Under | |
| MIA @ ATL | 1.5 (+114) | 0.0 | 0 | Under | |
| IND @ MIA | 1.5 (+144) | 0.0 | 0 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Books adjusted 0.0 vs. -1.0 actual output delta (-1.0 Book Over-Adjustment).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · vs MIN | 1.5 | — | 1 | -0.5 |
| Oct 23 · vs DET | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Oct 24 · @ CHA | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2 | +0.5 |
| Oct 26 · vs DAL | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Oct 28 · @ ATL | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Oct 30 · vs IND | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.5 |
Adebayo can score effectively inside without generating the perimeter volume needed for two made threes.
3.8 3PA · 15.8% 3PT · 5 GAMES — Adebayo has averaged 3.8 three-point attempts across five games, shooting 15.8%. That attempt allocation leaves little room for a second make unless conversion improves substantially or his shot mix changes.
24 PTS · 16 FGA · 1 3PA — His latest 24-point game included 16 field-goal attempts but only one from three-point range. Miami can involve him as a scorer without requiring repeated perimeter finishes.
Interior help can invite more pick-and-pop attempts than the usual allocation. Two early makes settle this against the selection, and a fast game can supply additional chances.
Settlement Rule: CASHES BAM ADEBAYO UNDER 1.5 MADE THREES WITH ZERO OR ONE MAKE; NO PUSH AT THE HALF POINT.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Miami Heat's 5 primary contributors.
| Miami Heat Contributor | Oct 30 vs IND | Nov 2 @ LAL | Nov 4 @ LAC | Nov 5 @ GSW | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo MIA · Points | 31.5 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 28.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Bam Adebayo MIA · Points | 18.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 18.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Andrew Wiggins MIA · Points | 12.5 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 10.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Bobby Portis MIA · Points | 11.5 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Davion Mitchell MIA · Points | 11.5 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Bam Adebayo prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | IND @ MIA | 3-Pointers Made | Under 1.5 (-152) · Caesars | 1.5 | 0 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Adebayo can score effectively inside without generating the perimeter volume needed for two made threes.
Counter-Case: Interior help can invite more pick-and-pop attempts than the usual allocation. Two early makes settle this against the selection, and a fast game can supply additional chances.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |