NBA Player Prop & CLV DossierTeam: MIAPosted Line Trajectory: Trending Down (-2.0 over 6 games)

Giannis Antetokounmpo (NBA) Posted Points Line Trajectory & CLV Record

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)

NBA Player Props CLV Counts
73 Beat · 11 Tied · 36 Lost
Giannis Antetokounmpo Releases: 1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost

Sportsbook Posted Points Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)

Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game.

Posted Book Line
Across the last 6 active games (Oct 26 to Nov 5), sportsbooks adjusted Giannis Antetokounmpo's posted points line downward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 30.5 to 28.5 (-2.0).32.531.530.529.528.527.530.530.531.529.529.528.5Oct 26DAL @ MIAOct 28MIA @ ATLOct 30IND @ MIANov 2MIA @ LALNov 4MIA @ LACNov 5MIA @ GSW

Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 26 to Nov 5), sportsbooks adjusted Giannis Antetokounmpo's posted points line downward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 30.5 to 28.5 (-2.0).

6-Game Posted Points Ledger (Giannis Antetokounmpo)

America/Chicago (CT)
Date (CT)MatchupPosted LineMoveActualResult
DAL @ MIA30.5 (-102)—29Under
MIA @ ATL30.5 (-120)0.024Under
IND @ MIA31.5 (-112)+1.031Under
MIA @ LAL29.5 (-118)-2.030Over
MIA @ LAC29.5 (-105)0.027Under
MIA @ GSW28.5 (-110)-1.020Under

Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.

Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Book Ahead of Production6-Game Window

Giannis Antetokounmpo Points Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)

Books adjusted -2.0 vs. -3.7 actual output delta (-1.7 Book Over-Adjustment).

Unpriced Book Step-Lag-1.7Max Single-Game Book Step: -2.0
Window Open Line
30.5
Current Posted Line
28.5
Book Cumulative Step
-2.0
Actual Window Avg
26.8
Actual Output Delta
-3.7
Modeled Fair Value
—
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
Giannis Antetokounmpo Sticky Book Anchoring Meter: 6-game Posted Points Line vs Actual Box-Score Output351729Oct 26vs DAL24Oct 28@ ATL31Oct 30vs IND30Nov 2@ LAL27Nov 4@ LAC20Nov 5@ GSW
Game (CT)Posted LineBook StepActualBox Surplus
Oct 26 · vs DAL30.5—29-1.5
Oct 28 · @ ATL30.50.024-6.5
Oct 30 · vs IND31.5+1.031-0.5
Nov 2 · @ LAL29.5-2.030+0.5
Nov 4 · @ LAC29.50.027-2.5
Nov 5 · @ GSW28.5-1.020-8.5
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up

Giannis Antetokounmpo Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (1 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)

1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Giannis Antetokounmpo prop write-up.

Giannis Antetokounmpo CLV Counts
1 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost
1 Settled CLV Receipt
Date (CT)MatchupMarketRelease QuoteClosing LineActualCLV GradeWrite-Up
Nov 2MIA @ LALPointsUnder 31.5 (-112) · DraftKings29.530BeatRead Write-Up →

Archived Settled Giannis Antetokounmpo Prop Write-Ups

Nov 2 CT · MIA @ LAL · PointsFull Write-Up →

Antetokounmpo's recent scoring workload supports a productive night that still finishes short of the required 32 points.

Counter-Case: Antetokounmpo can push beyond the threshold through transition baskets and a heavier free-throw workload. A close finish that extends his minutes, especially after an exceptionally fast opening half, can eliminate the scoring cushion.

Giannis Antetokounmpo WagerBird Prop Release & CLV Archive

Date (CT)MatchupMarketReleaseCloseActualCLV Grade
Nov 2MIA @ LALPointsUnder 31.529.530Beat
Oct 30IND @ MIAAssistsUnder 6.56.510—

NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)

WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)
Prop Lane WindowBeat CloseTied CloseLost Close
Season to date (from Sep 23 CT)731136
Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT)731136