By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 4 active games (Oct 8 to Oct 22), Simon Holmstrom's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 1.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for LA @ NYI is 1.3 (-181).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI @ NYI | 1.5 (+105) | — | 0 | Under | |
| NYI @ TOR | 1.5 (+125) | 0.0 | 2 | Over | |
| ANA @ NYI | 1.5 (+105) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| LA @ NYI | 1.5 (+105) | 0.0 | 3 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.5).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 · vs CHI | 1.5 | — | 0 | -1.5 |
| Oct 17 · @ TOR | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2 | +0.5 |
| Oct 20 · vs ANA | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +1.5 |
| Oct 22 · vs LA | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +1.5 |
Holmstrom’s low personal shooting volume can persist even when his line creates offense.
12 SOG · 9 GP · 5.36% SHARE — Holmstrom has taken 12 of the Islanders’ 224 shots through nine games. His line can spend time attacking without routing enough of those attempts through him to create a busy shooting night.
100 SOG · 79 GP · PP1 — Last season’s 100 shots in 79 games also show modest personal shooting volume. Playing with Horvat and Palmieri and on the first power-play unit creates opportunities, but those assignments do not require him to be the player who shoots.
Clean slot receptions from Horvat could produce quick attempts without an unusually long shift. First-unit power-play possession can then provide another shot after a rebound or a recovered clearance.
Settlement Rule: CASHES SIMON HOLMSTROM FULL GAME SHOTS ON GOAL UNDER 1.5 WITH ZERO OR ONE SHOT; TWO OR MORE LOSE, AND A PUSH IS IMPOSSIBLE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across New York Islanders's 5 primary contributors.
| New York Islanders Contributor | Oct 29 @ MIN | Oct 31 vs EDM | Nov 5 vs CAR | Nov 7 vs NJ | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Schaefer NYI · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Bo Horvat NYI · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Kyle Palmieri NYI · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | — | 1.5 | — | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Brayden Schenn NYI · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Simon Holmstrom NYI · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Simon Holmstrom prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | LA @ NYI | Shots on Goal | Under 1.5 (-120) · DraftKings | 1.5 | 3 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Holmstrom’s low personal shooting volume can persist even when his line creates offense.
Counter-Case: Clean slot receptions from Horvat could produce quick attempts without an unusually long shift. First-unit power-play possession can then provide another shot after a rebound or a recovered clearance.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |