01 · Fundamental Driver
Meaningful shooting share
16 SOG · 7 GP · 7.80% SHARE — Clarke has supplied 16 of the Kings’ 205 shots through seven games. That share gives him a shooting route that does not require the forwards to finish their chances.
Posted Line Trajectory: Flat (0.0 over 5 games)Settled / Live Release · Full Dossier Unlocked
Brandt Clarke Shots on Goal Prop (Los Angeles Kings @ New York Islanders, ): Fair Line 1.9 (-137) vs 1.5 Market
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Fanatics: Over 1.5 (-138)Modeled Edge: +8.0% EV · Fair Value 1.9 (-137)
- Pick & Release Line
- OVER 1.5 (-138)
- FanDuel
- Modeled Fair Line
- 1.9
- 0.4 Pt Delta
- Modeled Fair Price
- -137
- +8.0% EV
- Posted Line Drift
- 1.5 → 1.5 (0.0)
- Last 5 Active Games
- Matchup (CT)
- LA @ NYI
- NHL Props Lane CLV
- 50 / 10 / 21
- Beat / Tied / Lost
Sportsbook Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory (Last 5 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (1.9 / -137)
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 5 active games (Oct 10 to Oct 22), Brandt Clarke's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 1.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for LA @ NYI is 1.9 (-137).
5-Game Posted Shots on Goal Ledger (Brandt Clarke)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA @ VEG | 1.5 (-105) | — | 3 | Over | |
| EDM @ LA | 1.5 (-140) | 0.0 | 6 | Over | |
| BOS @ LA | 1.5 (+130) | 0.0 | 0 | Under | |
| LA @ WAS | 1.5 (-144) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| LA @ NYI | 1.5 (-138) | 0.0 | 2 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 3 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Balanced Pricing6-Game Window
Brandt Clarke Shots on Goal Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.5).
Unpriced Book Step-Lag+0.5Max Single-Game Book Step: 0.0
- Window Open Line
- 1.5
- Current Posted Line
- 1.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- 0.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 2.0
- Actual Output Delta
- +0.5
- Modeled Fair Value
- 1.9 (-137)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 · vs FLA | 1.5 | — | 0 | -1.5 |
| Oct 10 · @ VEG | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +1.5 |
| Oct 13 · vs EDM | 1.5 | 0.0 | 6 | +4.5 |
| Oct 17 · vs BOS | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Oct 20 · @ WAS | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -0.5 |
| Oct 22 · @ NYI | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2 | +0.5 |
WagerBird Write-Up · Brandt Clarke Shots on Goal (Over 1.5)
Full Dossier UnlockedWrite-Up Thesis
Clarke’s established shooting volume and first-unit power-play role provide multiple routes to two shots on goal.
02 · Fundamental Driver
Repeatable offensive access
159 SOG · 82 GP · PP1 — His prior-season total of 159 shots in 82 games supplies a longer volume baseline. The first power-play assignment adds controlled offensive-zone possessions in which he can look for a clean lane from the blue line.
Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Thesis Invalidation Risks
Clarke can distribute through an entire power-play shift without taking a shot himself. Blocked attempts and repeated defensive-zone clearances can also leave him short despite receiving his normal offensive assignment.
Settlement Rule: CASHES BRANDT CLARKE FULL GAME SHOTS ON GOAL OVER 1.5 WITH AT LEAST TWO SHOTS; ZERO OR ONE LOSES, AND A PUSH IS IMPOSSIBLE.
WagerBird Nucleus Drift · Team Prop Signal
LA @ NYI · Los Angeles Kings Shots on Goal Nucleus Drift ()
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Los Angeles Kings's 5 primary contributors.
LA Nucleus Drift1 of 5 Core Props Adjusted DownBalanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
| Los Angeles Kings Contributor | Oct 29 vs OTT | Oct 31 vs BUF | Nov 4 vs SJ | Nov 7 vs PIT | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artemi Panarin LA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Adrian Kempe LA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Alex Laferriere LA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Trevor Moore LA · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Brandt Clarke LA · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Los Angeles Kings (LA)1 of 5 Core Props Adjusted Down
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
New York Islanders (NYI)5 of 5 Core Props Held Flat
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team dossiers.
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up
Brandt Clarke Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (1 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Brandt Clarke prop write-up.
Brandt Clarke CLV Counts
1 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost
1 Settled CLV Receipt| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | LA @ NYI | Shots on Goal | Over 1.5 (-115) · Fanatics | 1.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Brandt Clarke Prop Write-Ups
Oct 22 CT · LA @ NYI · Shots on GoalFull Write-Up →
Clarke’s established shooting volume and first-unit power-play role provide multiple routes to two shots on goal.
Counter-Case: Clarke can distribute through an entire power-play shift without taking a shot himself. Blocked attempts and repeated defensive-zone clearances can also leave him short despite receiving his normal offensive assignment.
NHL Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |