By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 22 to Nov 4), Sam Reinhart's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for CHI @ FLA is 3.3 (-172).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA @ PIT | 2.5 (+140) | — | 6 | Over | |
| FLA @ CHI | 2.5 (+106) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| FLA @ WPG | 2.5 (+106) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| WPG @ FLA | 2.5 (-110) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| DET @ FLA | 2.5 (-102) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| CHI @ FLA | 2.5 (-112) | 0.0 | 6 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.3 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.3 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 · @ PIT | 2.5 | — | 6 | +3.5 |
| Oct 25 · @ CHI | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 27 · @ WPG | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 30 · vs WPG | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Nov 2 · vs DET | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Nov 4 · vs CHI | 2.5 | 0.0 | 6 | +3.5 |
Sam Reinhart’s regular workload and first-unit power-play access provide separate routes to three shots.
46 SOG · 15 GP · 17 LAST 5 — Reinhart produced 17 shots in his last five games, supporting repeated opportunities within a projected 20.1-minute workload. That workload allows him to accumulate attempts across ordinary shifts without needing a scoring play.
LINE 2 · PP1 · 11.3% SHOT SHARE — He plays with Carter Verhaeghe and Sandis Vilmanis at even strength and also receives first-unit power-play deployment. His 11.3% share in the historical 11-game snapshot establishes a meaningful shooting role, while special teams provide another route to clean releases.
Chicago can force Reinhart into distributing the puck while his linemates take the finishing attempts. An early Florida lead can reduce repeat attacking possessions and leave him short of three shots.
Settlement Rule: CASHES SAM REINHART OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST 3 OFFICIAL SHOTS. NO PUSH IS POSSIBLE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Florida Panthers's 5 primary contributors.
| Florida Panthers Contributor | Oct 30 vs WPG | Nov 2 vs DET | Nov 4 vs CHI | Nov 7 @ WAS | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk FLA · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Sam Reinhart FLA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Carter Verhaeghe FLA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Matthew Tkachuk FLA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Anton Lundell FLA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | — | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
4 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 4 settled Sam Reinhart prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | CHI @ FLA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-113) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 6 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 25 | FLA @ CHI | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+115) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 17 | SEA @ FLA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+105) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 3 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 15 | VAN @ FLA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+115) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 5 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Sam Reinhart’s regular workload and first-unit power-play access provide separate routes to three shots.
Counter-Case: Chicago can force Reinhart into distributing the puck while his linemates take the finishing attempts. An early Florida lead can reduce repeat attacking possessions and leave him short of three shots.
Reinhart's recent shooting rate, substantial ice time and continued PP1 access support three shots without requiring a high-scoring game.
Counter-Case: The lead power-play group can direct its possessions toward other finishers instead of Reinhart's release. Quick finishes by his even-strength linemates or a low-penalty game can leave him short of three shots.
Reinhart's current shooting volume and first-unit deployment put three shots within reach against Seattle's defense.
Counter-Case: Reinhart can convert a small number of attempts and never reach three shots. Shared power-play possessions can instead end with releases from Jones or either Tkachuk.
Reinhart's substantial ice time and first-power-play exposure support a three-shot game.
Counter-Case: Reinhart can score on an early chance and still finish with fewer than three shots. If Vancouver's goalie controls rebounds and Verhaeghe takes more of the line's attempts, the third shot may never arrive.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |