By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 13 to Oct 25), Sam Reinhart's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for FLA @ CHI is 3 (-131).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA @ CBJ | 2.5 (+140) | — | 7 | Over | |
| VAN @ FLA | 2.5 (-102) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| SEA @ FLA | 2.5 (+102) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| FLA @ OTT | 2.5 (+120) | 0.0 | 0 | Under | |
| FLA @ PIT | 2.5 (+140) | 0.0 | 6 | Over | |
| FLA @ CHI | 2.5 (+106) | 0.0 | 2 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 1 licensed partner sportsbook. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.3 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.3 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13 · @ CBJ | 2.5 | — | 7 | +4.5 |
| Oct 15 · vs VAN | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 17 · vs SEA | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 21 · @ OTT | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0 | -2.5 |
| Oct 22 · @ PIT | 2.5 | 0.0 | 6 | +3.5 |
| Oct 25 · @ CHI | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
Reinhart's recent shooting rate, substantial ice time and continued PP1 access support three shots without requiring a high-scoring game.
35 SOG · 11 GP · 20:21 TOI — Reinhart has produced 35 shots through 11 games while averaging 20:21 on the ice. That is a stronger shooting pace than his previous season's 165 shots in 64 games, so the current case does not rely solely on reputation. His projected second-line placement still leaves him with substantial opportunity to reach the shooting threshold.
PP1 · 4 PPG · 30.30 SA/G — Reinhart remains on the first power-play unit and has four power-play goals this season. That assignment gives him access to attacking possessions beyond his even-strength line's shifts. Against a Chicago team allowing 30.30 shots per game, those additional possessions can supply the attempt that decides the prop.
The lead power-play group can direct its possessions toward other finishers instead of Reinhart's release. Quick finishes by his even-strength linemates or a low-penalty game can leave him short of three shots.
Settlement Rule: CASHES SAM REINHART OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST THREE OFFICIAL SHOTS ON GOAL; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE AT 2.5.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Florida Panthers's 3 primary contributors.
| Florida Panthers Contributor | Oct 30 vs WPG | Nov 2 vs DET | Nov 4 vs CHI | Nov 7 @ WAS | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Tkachuk FLA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Sam Bennett FLA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Sam Reinhart FLA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
4 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 4 settled Sam Reinhart prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | CHI @ FLA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-113) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 6 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 25 | FLA @ CHI | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+115) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 17 | SEA @ FLA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+105) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 3 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 15 | VAN @ FLA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+115) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 5 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Sam Reinhart’s regular workload and first-unit power-play access provide separate routes to three shots.
Counter-Case: Chicago can force Reinhart into distributing the puck while his linemates take the finishing attempts. An early Florida lead can reduce repeat attacking possessions and leave him short of three shots.
Reinhart's recent shooting rate, substantial ice time and continued PP1 access support three shots without requiring a high-scoring game.
Counter-Case: The lead power-play group can direct its possessions toward other finishers instead of Reinhart's release. Quick finishes by his even-strength linemates or a low-penalty game can leave him short of three shots.
Reinhart's current shooting volume and first-unit deployment put three shots within reach against Seattle's defense.
Counter-Case: Reinhart can convert a small number of attempts and never reach three shots. Shared power-play possessions can instead end with releases from Jones or either Tkachuk.
Reinhart's substantial ice time and first-power-play exposure support a three-shot game.
Counter-Case: Reinhart can score on an early chance and still finish with fewer than three shots. If Vancouver's goalie controls rebounds and Verhaeghe takes more of the line's attempts, the third shot may never arrive.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |