By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 3 active games (Oct 12 to Oct 15), Sam Reinhart's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for VAN @ FLA is 2.9 (-119).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA @ BUF | 2.5 (+116) | — | 2 | Under | |
| FLA @ CBJ | 2.5 (+140) | 0.0 | 7 | Over | |
| VAN @ FLA | 2.5 (-102) | 0.0 | 5 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.2 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.2 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 · @ ANA | 2.5 | — | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 6 · @ LA | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 10 · vs MIN | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 12 · @ BUF | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 13 · @ CBJ | 2.5 | 0.0 | 7 | +4.5 |
| Oct 15 · vs VAN | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
Reinhart's substantial ice time and first-power-play exposure support a three-shot game.
21 SOG · 7 GP · 21:07 TOI — Reinhart is receiving enough ice time to generate attempts across multiple stretches of the game. His current volume therefore has a workload foundation rather than depending on a brief finishing burst.
165 SOG · 64 GP LAST SEASON · PP1 — His previous shooting production supplies a baseline for repeated attempts, while his current line with Verhaeghe and Lafferty offers even-strength touches. First-unit power-play shifts add a separate setting in which he can turn a reception into a shot.
Reinhart can score on an early chance and still finish with fewer than three shots. If Vancouver's goalie controls rebounds and Verhaeghe takes more of the line's attempts, the third shot may never arrive.
Settlement Rule: CASHES IF SAM REINHART RECORDS AT LEAST 3 SHOTS ON GOAL IN THE FULL GAME; NO PUSH AT 2.5.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Florida Panthers's 5 primary contributors.
| Florida Panthers Contributor | Oct 30 vs WPG | Nov 2 vs DET | Nov 4 vs CHI | Nov 7 @ WAS | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk FLA · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Sam Reinhart FLA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Carter Verhaeghe FLA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Matthew Tkachuk FLA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Sam Bennett FLA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
4 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 4 settled Sam Reinhart prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | CHI @ FLA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-113) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 6 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 25 | FLA @ CHI | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+115) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 17 | SEA @ FLA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+105) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 3 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 15 | VAN @ FLA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+115) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 5 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Sam Reinhart’s regular workload and first-unit power-play access provide separate routes to three shots.
Counter-Case: Chicago can force Reinhart into distributing the puck while his linemates take the finishing attempts. An early Florida lead can reduce repeat attacking possessions and leave him short of three shots.
Reinhart's recent shooting rate, substantial ice time and continued PP1 access support three shots without requiring a high-scoring game.
Counter-Case: The lead power-play group can direct its possessions toward other finishers instead of Reinhart's release. Quick finishes by his even-strength linemates or a low-penalty game can leave him short of three shots.
Reinhart's current shooting volume and first-unit deployment put three shots within reach against Seattle's defense.
Counter-Case: Reinhart can convert a small number of attempts and never reach three shots. Shared power-play possessions can instead end with releases from Jones or either Tkachuk.
Reinhart's substantial ice time and first-power-play exposure support a three-shot game.
Counter-Case: Reinhart can score on an early chance and still finish with fewer than three shots. If Vancouver's goalie controls rebounds and Verhaeghe takes more of the line's attempts, the third shot may never arrive.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |