01 · Fundamental Driver
Sustained shooting history
2.35 Projected Shots; 186 In 81 Games — Nelson is projected for 2.35 shots after taking 186 in 81 games last season. His expected 18-21 minutes provide a regular window to generate attempts.
Posted Line Trajectory: Opening CaptureSettled / Live Release · Full Dossier Unlocked
Brock Nelson Shots on Goal Prop (St. Louis Blues @ Colorado Avalanche, ): Fair Line 2.4 (-213) vs 2.5 Market
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Fanatics: Over 2.5 (+128)Modeled Edge: +9.3% EV · Fair Value 2.4 (-213)
- Pick & Release Line
- OVER 2.5 (+128)
- FanDuel
- Modeled Fair Line
- 2.4
- 0.1 Pt Delta
- Modeled Fair Price
- -213
- +9.3% EV
- Posted Line Drift
- 2.5
- Last 1 Active Games
- Matchup (CT)
- STL @ COL
- NHL Props Lane CLV
- 50 / 10 / 21
- Beat / Tied / Lost
Sportsbook Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory (Last 1 Active Game)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (2.4 / -213)
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Brock Nelson's shots on goal line at 2.5 for STL @ COL (Oct 3). WagerBird's modeled fair line for STL @ COL is 2.4 (-213).
1-Game Posted Shots on Goal Ledger (Brock Nelson)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL @ COL | 2.5 (+128) | — | 1 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 3 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Book Ahead of Production2-Game Window
Brock Nelson Shots on Goal Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Books adjusted +1.0 vs. -0.5 actual output delta (-1.5 Book Over-Adjustment).
Unpriced Book Step-Lag-1.5Max Single-Game Book Step: +1.0
- Window Open Line
- 1.5
- Current Posted Line
- 2.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- +1.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 1.0
- Actual Output Delta
- -0.5
- Modeled Fair Value
- 2.4 (-213)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 · vs LA | 1.5 | — | 1 | -0.5 |
| Oct 3 · vs STL | 2.5 | +1.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
WagerBird Write-Up · Brock Nelson Shots on Goal (Over 2.5)
Full Dossier UnlockedWrite-Up Thesis
Nelson's projected second-line minutes and recent offensive involvement give him chances to register at least two shots.
02 · Fundamental Driver
Second-line and power-play opportunity
18-21 Minutes; PP2 — He is projected with Landeskog and Kadri, giving him a second-line role in Colorado's offense. Nelson is also assigned to the second power-play unit, adding a separate setting for shot opportunities.
Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Thesis Invalidation Risks
Nelson needs at least two shots, but he recorded only one in 19:14 in the opener. If his role with Landeskog and Kadri leans toward setting up teammates or Colorado has fewer attacking possessions, his shot total could stay at one.
Settlement Rule: CASHES BROCK NELSON OVER 1.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST 2 SHOTS ON GOAL. · NO PUSH ON THE HALF
WagerBird Nucleus Drift · Team Prop Signal
STL @ COL · Colorado Avalanche Shots on Goal Nucleus Drift ()
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Colorado Avalanche's 5 primary contributors.
COL Nucleus Drift5 of 5 Core Props Held FlatBalanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
| Colorado Avalanche Contributor | Nov 2 @ CHI | Nov 3 @ CBJ | Nov 5 vs NAS | Nov 7 vs DET | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon COL · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Cale Makar COL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Martin Necas COL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Nazem Kadri COL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Gabriel Landeskog COL · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Colorado Avalanche (COL)5 of 5 Core Props Held Flat
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
St. Louis Blues (STL)4 of 4 Core Props Held Flat
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team dossiers.
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up
Brock Nelson Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (1 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Brock Nelson prop write-up.
Brock Nelson CLV Counts
1 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost
1 Settled CLV Receipt| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 | STL @ COL | Shots on Goal | Over 1.5 (-165) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 1 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Brock Nelson Prop Write-Ups
Oct 3 CT · STL @ COL · Shots on GoalFull Write-Up →
Nelson's projected second-line minutes and recent offensive involvement give him chances to register at least two shots.
Counter-Case: Nelson needs at least two shots, but he recorded only one in 19:14 in the opener. If his role with Landeskog and Kadri leans toward setting up teammates or Colorado has fewer attacking possessions, his shot total could stay at one.
NHL Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |