By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 26 to Nov 7), Adrian Kempe's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for PIT @ LA is 3.4 (-194).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA @ NYR | 2.5 (-128) | — | 7 | Over | |
| LA @ CHI | 2.5 (-115) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| OTT @ LA | 2.5 (-115) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| BUF @ LA | 2.5 (-130) | 0.0 | — | — | |
| SJ @ LA | 3.5 (+135) | +1.0 | 4 | Over | |
| PIT @ LA | 2.5 (-150) | -1.0 | — | Fair 3.4 |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.8 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.8 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 · @ NYR | 2.5 | — | 7 | +4.5 |
| Oct 27 · @ CHI | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
| Oct 29 · vs OTT | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 31 · vs BUF | 2.5 | 0.0 | — | — |
| Nov 4 · vs SJ | 3.5 | +1.0 | 4 | +0.5 |
| Nov 7 · vs PIT | 2.5 | -1.0 | — | — |
Kempe’s sustained shooting rate and first-unit power-play access support three shots without requiring another scoring outburst.
45 SOG · 13 GP · 20:29 AVG TOI — Kempe’s 45 shots in 13 appearances come with a 20:29 average workload, so the expected 20:30 does not require extra minutes to manufacture the opportunity. His shooting rate supplies the main path to three shots even after a modest downward opponent adjustment.
LINE 1 · PP1 · 27.44 OPPONENT SA/GP — Kempe skates with Panarin and Laferriere and also joins the first power-play unit, preserving opportunities across even-strength and penalty-driven possessions. Pittsburgh’s 27.44 shots allowed per game means the case rests on that deployment rather than an assumption of unusually permissive defense.
Pittsburgh can keep entries to the outside and funnel possession away from Kempe’s shooting lane. If Los Angeles spends long stretches defending, his group can lose the repeated offensive-zone shifts needed for three shots.
Settlement Rule: CASHES ADRIAN KEMPE OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST 3 OFFICIAL SHOTS; NO PUSH AT 2.5.
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Los Angeles Kings's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
+15.2 Shots Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 18.7 vs. 3.5 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.0 | 69.7% | 18.7 | 3.5 (+127) | +15.2 |
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Artemi Panarin LA · Prev 2.5 (0.0) | 2.5 | 14.1% | 71.4%(+57.3% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share | |
#2 Alex Laferriere LA · Prev 2.5 (0.0) | 2.5 | 15.6% | 71.4%(+55.8% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share | |
#3 Adrian Kempe LA · Prev 3.5 (-1.0) | 2.5 | 16.3% | 71.4%(+55.1% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#4 Quinton Byfield LA · Prev 2.5 (0.0) | 2.5 | 12.6% | 71.4%(+58.8% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Steady Share | |
#5 Brandt Clarke LA · Prev 1.5 (0.0) | 1.5 | 3.0% | 42.9%(+39.9% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share | |
#6 Trevor Moore LA · Prev 2.5 (-1.0) | 1.5 | 8.1% | 42.9%(+34.8% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Team Tide Shift |
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Adrian Kempe prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | PIT @ LA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-165) · FanDuel | 2.5 | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 17 | BOS @ LA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-118) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 1 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 13 | EDM @ LA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-130) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 1 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Kempe's established shooting volume and top-line access support reaching three shots against Boston.
Counter-Case: Boston can steer Kempe's attempts into blocked lanes before they reach the goalie. A Kings lead can also shift his late minutes toward protecting possession rather than adding shots.
Kempe's established shot production and finishing role beside Panarin support a three-shot result.
Counter-Case: Kempe can lose the final attempt when Panarin shoots first or Edmonton breaks up the entry. A Kings lead can also reduce the late attacking urgency needed to add a third shot.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |