By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 3 active games (Oct 10 to Oct 17), Adrian Kempe's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for BOS @ LA is 3.2 (-163).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA @ VEG | 2.5 (-118) | — | 3 | Over | |
| EDM @ LA | 2.5 (-114) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| BOS @ LA | 2.5 (-150) | 0.0 | 1 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 3 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.3).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 · @ COL | 2.5 | — | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 3 · @ SJ | 2.5 | 0.0 | 6 | +3.5 |
| Oct 6 · vs FLA | 3.5 | +1.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Oct 10 · @ VEG | 2.5 | -1.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 13 · vs EDM | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
| Oct 17 · vs BOS | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
Kempe's established shooting volume and top-line access support reaching three shots against Boston.
226 SOG · 81 GAMES — Kempe recorded 226 shots in 81 games last season, giving him an established volume base rather than a finishing-dependent case. His place with Panarin and Byfield keeps him involved in the Kings' leading attacking line.
12 SOG · 3 GAMES · 4:03 PP/G — Kempe took 12 of Los Angeles' 86 shots in the early three-game snapshot, a 14.0% share. His 4:03 power-play average in that deployment report adds attacking time when Boston has fewer defenders available to close shooting lanes.
Boston can steer Kempe's attempts into blocked lanes before they reach the goalie. A Kings lead can also shift his late minutes toward protecting possession rather than adding shots.
Settlement Rule: CASHES ADRIAN KEMPE OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST 3 OFFICIAL SHOTS ON GOAL; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Los Angeles Kings's 5 primary contributors.
| Los Angeles Kings Contributor | Oct 29 vs OTT | Oct 31 vs BUF | Nov 4 vs SJ | Nov 7 vs PIT | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artemi Panarin LA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Adrian Kempe LA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Quinton Byfield LA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Alex Laferriere LA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Trevor Moore LA · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Adrian Kempe prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | PIT @ LA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-165) · FanDuel | 2.5 | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 17 | BOS @ LA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-118) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 1 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 13 | EDM @ LA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-130) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 1 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Kempe's established shooting volume and top-line access support reaching three shots against Boston.
Counter-Case: Boston can steer Kempe's attempts into blocked lanes before they reach the goalie. A Kings lead can also shift his late minutes toward protecting possession rather than adding shots.
Kempe's established shot production and finishing role beside Panarin support a three-shot result.
Counter-Case: Kempe can lose the final attempt when Panarin shoots first or Edmonton breaks up the entry. A Kings lead can also reduce the late attacking urgency needed to add a third shot.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |