Adrian Kempe (NHL) Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory & CLV Record
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Sportsbook Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 26 to Nov 7), Adrian Kempe's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for PIT @ LA is 3.4 (-194).
6-Game Posted Shots on Goal Ledger (Adrian Kempe)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA @ NYR | 2.5 (-128) | — | 7 | Over | |
| LA @ CHI | 2.5 (-115) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| OTT @ LA | 2.5 (-115) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| BUF @ LA | 2.5 (-130) | 0.0 | — | — | |
| SJ @ LA | 3.5 (+135) | +1.0 | 4 | Over | |
| PIT @ LA | 2.5 (-159) | -1.0 | — | Fair 3.4 |
Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Adrian Kempe Shots on Goal Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Actual output +1.8 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.8 Unpriced Book Lag).
- Window Open Line
- 2.5
- Current Posted Line
- 2.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- 0.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 4.3
- Actual Output Delta
- +1.8
- Modeled Fair Value
- 3.4 (-194)
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 · @ NYR | 2.5 | — | 7 | +4.5 |
| Oct 27 · @ CHI | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
| Oct 29 · vs OTT | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 31 · vs BUF | 2.5 | 0.0 | — | — |
| Nov 4 · vs SJ | 3.5 | +1.0 | 4 | +0.5 |
| Nov 7 · vs PIT | 2.5 | -1.0 | — | — |
Adrian Kempe Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (1 Beat, 0 Tied, 1 Lost)
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Adrian Kempe prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | PIT @ LA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-165) · FanDuel | 2.5 | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 17 | BOS @ LA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-118) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 1 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 13 | EDM @ LA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-130) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 1 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Adrian Kempe Prop Write-Ups
Kempe's established shooting volume and top-line access support reaching three shots against Boston.
Counter-Case: Boston can steer Kempe's attempts into blocked lanes before they reach the goalie. A Kings lead can also shift his late minutes toward protecting possession rather than adding shots.
Kempe's established shot production and finishing role beside Panarin support a three-shot result.
Counter-Case: Kempe can lose the final attempt when Panarin shoots first or Edmonton breaks up the entry. A Kings lead can also reduce the late attacking urgency needed to add a third shot.
Adrian Kempe WagerBird Prop Release & CLV Archive
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release | Close | Actual | CLV Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | PIT @ LA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 | 2.5 | — | — |
| Oct 17 | BOS @ LA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 | 2.5 | 1 | Beat |
| Oct 13 | EDM @ LA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 | 2.5 | 1 | Lost |
NHL Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |