By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 2 active games (Oct 10 to Oct 13), Adrian Kempe's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for EDM @ LA is 3.1 (-155).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA @ VEG | 2.5 (-118) | — | 3 | Over | |
| EDM @ LA | 2.5 (-114) | 0.0 | 1 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 3 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.7).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 · @ COL | 2.5 | — | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 3 · @ SJ | 2.5 | 0.0 | 6 | +3.5 |
| Oct 6 · vs FLA | 3.5 | +1.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Oct 10 · @ VEG | 2.5 | -1.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 13 · vs EDM | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
Kempe's established shot production and finishing role beside Panarin support a three-shot result.
226 SOG · 81 GP · 15 SOG IN 4 GP — Kempe recorded 226 shots in 81 games last season and accumulated 15 over his first four games this season. Those two samples provide a volume foundation independent of whether his shots become goals.
21 MIN FORECAST · PANARIN/BYFIELD LINE · PP1 — Panarin and Byfield are his projected linemates, giving Kempe a route to receive the finishing pass after an extended possession. First-unit power-play usage adds set-play opportunities within the expected 21 minutes.
Kempe can lose the final attempt when Panarin shoots first or Edmonton breaks up the entry. A Kings lead can also reduce the late attacking urgency needed to add a third shot.
Settlement Rule: CASHES WITH AT LEAST THREE ADRIAN KEMPE SHOTS ON GOAL; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE AT 2.5.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Los Angeles Kings's 5 primary contributors.
| Los Angeles Kings Contributor | Oct 29 vs OTT | Oct 31 vs BUF | Nov 4 vs SJ | Nov 7 vs PIT | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artemi Panarin LA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Quinton Byfield LA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Adrian Kempe LA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Alex Laferriere LA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Trevor Moore LA · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Adrian Kempe prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | PIT @ LA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-165) · FanDuel | 2.5 | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 17 | BOS @ LA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-118) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 1 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 13 | EDM @ LA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-130) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 1 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Kempe's established shooting volume and top-line access support reaching three shots against Boston.
Counter-Case: Boston can steer Kempe's attempts into blocked lanes before they reach the goalie. A Kings lead can also shift his late minutes toward protecting possession rather than adding shots.
Kempe's established shot production and finishing role beside Panarin support a three-shot result.
Counter-Case: Kempe can lose the final attempt when Panarin shoots first or Edmonton breaks up the entry. A Kings lead can also reduce the late attacking urgency needed to add a third shot.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |