01 · Fundamental Driver
Established center workload
11.8 PTS · 29.3 MIN — Carter averaged 11.8 points in 29.3 minutes last season. A similar stint keeps the scoring target reachable without requiring a major increase in touches.
Posted Line Trajectory: Trending Up (+1.0 over 3 games)Settled / Live Release · Full Dossier Unlocked
Wendell Carter Jr. Points Prop (Orlando Magic @ New York Knicks, ): Fair Line 13.3 (-186) vs 11.5 Market
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Fanatics: Over 11.5 (-108)Modeled Edge: +21.6% EV · Fair Value 13.3 (-186)
- Pick & Release Line
- OVER 11.5 (-108)
- FanDuel
- Modeled Fair Line
- 13.3
- 1.8 Pt Delta
- Modeled Fair Price
- -186
- +21.6% EV
- Posted Line Drift
- 10.5 → 11.5 (+1.0)
- Last 3 Active Games
- Matchup (CT)
- ORL @ NYK
- NBA Props Lane CLV
- 73 / 11 / 36
- Beat / Tied / Lost
Sportsbook Posted Points Line Trajectory (Last 3 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (13.3 / -186)
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 3 active games (Oct 21 to Oct 25), sportsbooks adjusted Wendell Carter Jr.'s posted points line upward in 1 of 2 game-over-game steps from 10.5 to 11.5 (+1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for ORL @ NYK is 13.3 (-186).
3-Game Posted Points Ledger (Wendell Carter Jr.)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ ORL | 10.5 (-102) | — | 22 | Over | |
| MIN @ ORL | 10.5 (+105) | 0.0 | 20 | Over | |
| ORL @ NYK | 11.5 (-108) | +1.0 | 9 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Book Lagging Production3-Game Window
Wendell Carter Jr. Points Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Actual output +6.5 vs. +1.0 book step adjustment (+5.5 Unpriced Book Lag).
Unpriced Book Step-Lag+5.5Max Single-Game Book Step: +1.0
- Window Open Line
- 10.5
- Current Posted Line
- 11.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- +1.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 17.0
- Actual Output Delta
- +6.5
- Modeled Fair Value
- 13.3 (-186)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · vs ATL | 10.5 | — | 22 | +11.5 |
| Oct 23 · vs MIN | 10.5 | 0.0 | 20 | +9.5 |
| Oct 25 · @ NYK | 11.5 | +1.0 | 9 | -2.5 |
WagerBird Write-Up · Wendell Carter Jr. Points (Over 11.5)
Full Dossier UnlockedWrite-Up Thesis
Steady center minutes and a modest shot load can get Carter past the scoring target without repeating his hot start.
02 · Fundamental Driver
Room to cool off
20 PTS · 3/4 FROM THREE — His latest game produced 20 points, including three makes on four three-point attempts. The scoring target remains reachable with a much smaller perimeter contribution if ordinary center finishes and free throws supply the rest.
Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Thesis Invalidation Risks
Fouls while defending Towns can interrupt Carter's normal stints or push him out of the closing lineup. If Orlando channels its remaining offense through perimeter creators, his shot count can shrink before his shooting efficiency matters.
Settlement Rule: CASHES WITH WENDELL CARTER JR. SCORING AT LEAST 12 POINTS; NO PUSH AT 11.5.
WagerBird Nucleus Drift · Team Prop Signal
ORL @ NYK · Orlando Magic Points Nucleus Drift ()
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Orlando Magic's 5 primary contributors.
ORL Nucleus Drift5 of 5 Core Props Adjusted UpMarket Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
| Orlando Magic Contributor | Nov 1 vs BOS | Nov 2 vs WAS | Nov 5 @ PHX | Nov 7 @ GSW | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner ORL · Points | 21.5 | 24.5 | 23.5 | 24.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Desmond Bane ORL · Points | 19.5 | 21.5 | 20.5 | 19.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Jalen Suggs ORL · Points | — | — | — | — | +2.0 | — | Trending Up ↑ |
| Wendell Carter Jr. ORL · Points | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 12.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Tristan da Silva ORL · Points | 10.5 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 14.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ |
Orlando Magic (ORL)5 of 5 Core Props Adjusted Up
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
New York Knicks (NYK)4 of 5 Core Props Adjusted Up
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team dossiers.
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up
Wendell Carter Jr. Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 1 Lost)
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Wendell Carter Jr. prop write-up.
Wendell Carter Jr. CLV Counts
0 Beat · 0 Tied · 1 Lost
1 Settled CLV Receipt| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | ORL @ NYK | Points | Over 11.5 (-115) · Fanatics | 11.5 | 9 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Wendell Carter Jr. Prop Write-Ups
Oct 25 CT · ORL @ NYK · PointsFull Write-Up →
Steady center minutes and a modest shot load can get Carter past the scoring target without repeating his hot start.
Counter-Case: Fouls while defending Towns can interrupt Carter's normal stints or push him out of the closing lineup. If Orlando channels its remaining offense through perimeter creators, his shot count can shrink before his shooting efficiency matters.
NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |