By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 3 active games (Oct 20 to Oct 25), sportsbooks adjusted Miles McBride's posted points line upward in 1 of 2 game-over-game steps from 6.5 to 8.5 (+2.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for ORL @ NYK is 10.0 (-530).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ NYK | 6.5 (-103) | — | 3 | Under | |
| NYK @ BOS | 5.5 (-105) | -1.0 | 20 | Over | |
| ORL @ NYK | 8.5 (-108) | +3.0 | 1 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (+2.0) tracks actual window production (+1.5).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 · vs PHI | 6.5 | — | 3 | -3.5 |
| Oct 23 · @ BOS | 5.5 | -1.0 | 20 | +14.5 |
| Oct 25 · vs ORL | 8.5 | +3.0 | 1 | -7.5 |
A regular reserve shift gives McBride enough perimeter volume to reach a modest scoring target.
12.0 PTS · 26.3 MIN · 41 GAMES — McBride averaged 12.0 points in 26.3 minutes across 41 games last season. A regular reserve shift can therefore supply meaningful scoring without requiring him to take on a starter's workload.
11.5 PTS · 22.0 MIN · 2 GAMES — His opening two games have produced 11.5 points in 22.0 minutes per game. Alvarado is Questionable, but McBride's scoring path does not require that absence to create an entirely new role.
Alvarado's return could compress the reserve guard rotation and leave McBride with fewer scoring possessions. If his outside shots miss, a small shot load offers little room to recover.
Settlement Rule: CASHES WITH MILES MCBRIDE SCORING AT LEAST 7 POINTS; NO PUSH AT 6.5.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across New York Knicks's 5 primary contributors.
| New York Knicks Contributor | Oct 30 @ PHI | Nov 2 vs BKN | Nov 4 vs CHI | Nov 7 @ CLE | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson NYK · Points | 26.5 | 23.5 | 25.5 | 26.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Karl-Anthony Towns NYK · Points | 19.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 19.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| OG Anunoby NYK · Points | 16.5 | 16.5 | 17.5 | 16.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Mikal Bridges NYK · Points | 9.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 9.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Josh Hart NYK · Points | 10.5 | 10.5 | 9.5 | — | 0.0 | Flat → |
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Miles McBride prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | ORL @ NYK | Points | Over 6.5 (-129) · DraftKings | 8.5 | 1 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
A regular reserve shift gives McBride enough perimeter volume to reach a modest scoring target.
Counter-Case: Alvarado's return could compress the reserve guard rotation and leave McBride with fewer scoring possessions. If his outside shots miss, a small shot load offers little room to recover.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |