NBA Player Props vs. close: Ahead: 96 · At close: 12 · Behind: 42
ENES
Posted Line Trajectory: Flat (0.0 over 6 games)Locked Release · Opens at the Final

Luka Dončić 3-Pointers Made Prop (Los Angeles Lakers @ Milwaukee Bucks, ): Posted Line 4.5 vs WAGERBIRD Fair Line

By WAGERBIRD® Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. · NJ DGE Vendor #0096475

Released · Updated

Read the Release on WAGERBIRD →WAGERBIRD Fair Line: —
Posted Prop Line
Locked Until Start
Fanatics
WAGERBIRD Fair Line
—
—
Posted Line Drift
4.5 → 4.5 (0.0)
Last 6 Active Games
Matchup (ET)
LAL @ MIL
NBA Props Lane vs. Close
96 / 12 / 42
Ahead / At close / Behind

Sportsbook Posted 3-Pointers Made Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)

Pre-game sportsbook posted 3-pointers made total each game.

Posted Book Line
Across the last 6 active games (Nov 2 to Nov 11), Luka Dončić's posted 3-pointers made line has held net flat at 4.5.5.55.14.74.33.93.54.54.54.54.54.54.5Nov 2MIA @ LALNov 4LAL @ SACNov 6POR @ LALNov 8LAL @ DETNov 9LAL @ ATLNov 11LAL @ MIL

Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Nov 2 to Nov 11), Luka Dončić's posted 3-pointers made line has held net flat at 4.5.

6-Game Posted 3-Pointers Made Ledger (Luka Dončić)

America/New_York (ET)
Date (ET)MatchupPosted LineMoveActualResult
MIA @ LAL4.5 (+108)—6Over
LAL @ SAC4.5 (+126)0.06Over
POR @ LAL4.5 (-113)0.05Over
LAL @ DET4.5 (+105)0.0——
LAL @ ATL4.5 (-115)0.03Under
LAL @ MIL4.5 (+100)0.0—Upcoming

Canonical pre-game posted line across 6 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.

Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Balanced Pricing6-Game Window

Luka Dončić 3-Pointers Made Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)

Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.5).

Unpriced Book Step-Lag+0.5Max Single-Game Book Step: 0.0
Window Open Line
4.5
Current Posted Line
4.5
Book Cumulative Step
0.0
Actual Window Avg
5.0
Actual Output Delta
+0.5
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
Luka Dončić Sticky Book Anchoring Meter: 6-game Posted 3-Pointers Made Line vs Actual Box-Score Output726Nov 2vs MIA6Nov 4@ SAC5Nov 6vs PORNov 8@ DET3Nov 9@ ATLNov 11@ MIL
Game (ET)Posted LineBook StepActualBox Surplus
Nov 2 · vs MIA4.5—6+1.5
Nov 4 · @ SAC4.50.06+1.5
Nov 6 · vs POR4.50.05+0.5
Nov 8 · @ DET4.50.0——
Nov 9 · @ ATL4.50.03-1.5
Nov 11 · @ MIL4.50.0——
WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift · Team Tide ShiftLAL @ MIL · Points

LAL @ MIL · Los Angeles Lakers WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–5) ()

Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Los Angeles Lakers's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.

LAL Rotation Mode: Team Tide ShiftTeam Tide Shift: 4 of 5 Core-6 Scorers Adjusted DownTeam Tide Shift (Bearish): Market Compressing Core-6 Scoring Ceiling

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

-11.6 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 110.9 vs. 122.5 Posted Team Total)

7 Licensed Books Quoting Team Total
Los Angeles Lakers Core-6 Prop Sum 87.5 vs Implied Team Total 110.9 vs Posted Team Total 122.5Core-6 Prop Sum87.5Implied Team Total110.9Posted Team Total122.5
Core-6 SumCore-6 ShareImplied TotalPosted TotalReconciliation Gap
87.578.9%110.9122.5 (-105)-11.6
Core-6 PlayerTonight LineTeam Scoring Share %Tonight's Implied Prop Share %6-Game Line Drift6G TrendOutcome Tag
#1
Luka Dončić
LAL · Prev 37.5 (-3.0)
34.531.2%28.2%(-3.0% vs Hist)+1.0Luka Dončić 6-game posted line trend from 33.5 to 34.5Team Tide Shift
#2
Austin Reaves
LAL · Prev 21.5 (+1.0)
22.519.5%18.4%(-1.1% vs Hist)-1.0Austin Reaves 6-game posted line trend from 23.5 to 22.5Usage Transfer
#3
Walker Kessler
LAL · Prev 14.5 (-1.0)
13.511.9%11.0%(-0.9% vs Hist)+1.0Walker Kessler 6-game posted line trend from 12.5 to 13.5Team Tide Shift
#4
Sandro Mamukelashvili
LAL · Prev 9.5 (-1.0)
8.57.9%6.9%(-1.0% vs Hist)0.0Sandro Mamukelashvili 6-game posted line trend from 8.5 to 8.5Team Tide Shift
#5
Ziaire Williams
LAL · Prev 10.5 (-2.0)
8.58.4%6.9%(-1.5% vs Hist)0.0Ziaire Williams 6-game posted line trend from 8.5 to 8.5Team Tide Shift
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team pages.
Verified Player Write-Up Receipts1 Tracked Write-Up

Luka Dončić Prop Write-Up Receipts: Results & Closing-Line Timing

1 active Luka Dončić prop write-up tracked awaiting closing line settlement.

Luka Dončić vs. close
0 Ahead · 0 At close · 0 Behind
0 Settled Receipts
Date (ET)MatchupMarketResultRelease QuoteClosing LineActualvs. CloseWrite-Up
Nov 11LAL @ MIL3-Pointers Made—Locked · 4.5 (+100) · FanDuel4.5——Read Write-Up →

NBA Player Props Closing-Line Timing (96 Ahead, 12 At close, 42 Behind)

Every release is settled on the final stat line. Closing-line timing compares each timestamped release line and price with the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number; it measures entry timing, not the result (through Nov 10 ET).

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)
Prop Lane WindowAhead of closeAt the closeBehind close
Season to date (from Sep 23 ET)961242
Last 30 days (from Oct 12 ET)961242