By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 30 to Nov 8), LeBron James's posted points line has held net flat at 17.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for PHI @ CHI is 15.0 (-215).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYK @ PHI | 17.5 (-103) | — | 20 | Over | |
| PHI @ CHA | 19.5 (-110) | +2.0 | — | — | |
| CHI @ PHI | 17.5 (-112) | -2.0 | 15 | Under | |
| PHI @ DET | 15.5 (-113) | -2.0 | 13 | Under | |
| PHI @ CLE | 16.5 (-104) | +1.0 | 8 | Under | |
| PHI @ CHI | 17.5 (+103) | +1.0 | — | Fair 15.0 |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 6 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Books adjusted 0.0 vs. -3.5 actual output delta (-3.5 Book Over-Adjustment).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 · vs NYK | 17.5 | — | 20 | +2.5 |
| Oct 31 · @ CHA | 19.5 | +2.0 | — | — |
| Nov 2 · vs CHI | 17.5 | -2.0 | 15 | -2.5 |
| Nov 4 · @ DET | 15.5 | -2.0 | 13 | -2.5 |
| Nov 6 · @ CLE | 16.5 | +1.0 | 8 | -8.5 |
| Nov 8 · @ CHI | 17.5 | +1.0 | — | — |
James's facilitating role and shared scoring workload keep his personal shot supply modest.
15.7 PPG · 13.1 FGA · 33.1 MPG — James averaged 15.7 points on 13.1 attempts in 33.1 minutes in the earlier season table. Sharing possessions with several scorers allows him to influence the offense without taking its largest shot share.
15 PTS · 9 AST · 31 MIN VS CHI — The earlier Chicago meeting produced 15 points and nine assists in 31 minutes for James. Finding teammates can be his primary response to defensive help rather than forcing additional scoring attempts.
Chicago can concede easy finishes before its defense is set. If the other scorers struggle or the center plays shorter stints, James can respond by taking a larger share of the shots.
Settlement Rule: CASHES LEBRON JAMES UNDER 17.5 POINTS WITH 17 OR FEWER; NO PUSH ON THE HALF.
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Philadelphia 76ers's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
-12.0 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 112.5 vs. 124.5 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 108.0 | 96.0% | 112.5 | 124.5 (+100) | -12.0 |
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Tyrese Maxey PHI · Prev 25.5 (0.0) | 25.5 | 24.0% | 20.5%(-3.5% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share | |
#2 Jaylen Brown PHI · Prev 20.5 (+1.0) | 21.5 | 19.8% | 17.3%(-2.5% vs Hist) | +2.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#3 Joel Embiid PHI · Prev 21.5 (0.0) | 21.5 | 16.5% | 17.3%(+0.8% vs Hist) | -3.0 | Steady Share | |
#4 LeBron James PHI · Prev 16.5 (+1.0) | 17.5 | 13.5% | 14.1%(+0.6% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#5 VJ Edgecombe PHI · Prev 11.5 (+1.0) | 12.5 | 12.8% | 10.0%(-2.8% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#6 Anfernee Simons PHI · Prev 8.5 (+1.0) | 9.5 | 11.2% | 7.6%(-3.6% vs Hist) | -2.0 | Team Tide Shift |
1 active LeBron James prop write-up tracked awaiting closing line settlement.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | PHI @ CHI | Points | Under 17.5 (-115) · BetMGM | 17.5 | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 7 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 9 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |